S&P
Daily Spot… Gold gets back.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s weaker open suggested that Friday’s bounce had neutralized excessive pessimism from Friday’s gap down. But it immediately began reversing up and probed above Friday’s high. Nevertheless, resolving to new lows remains likely so long as bounces hold 1.1265.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reaction down from Thursday’s surge to 1156.50 extended down Sunday night to open Monday back under the surge’s 1136.00 low, testing Wednesday’s 1128.00 low. Closing back above 1137.50 would suggest the reaction down had ended, but it otherwise has potential to retest 1117.00
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down under last week’s lows was probed under 14.65 support whose recovery would signal the drop is only a temporary correction. Closing under 14.50 would all but require new lows under 14.20.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Presumably facilitated by Sunday night’s stock market drop, the Island created by Friday’s gap down was recovered already Monday after gapping up and then extending to retest Thursday’s 157-16 high. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at 153-26, which would be put into play back under 156-16.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Renewed weakness only attacked last week’s lows, so far, on the way to fulfilling at least the 42.80 pullback target so long as bounces hold 46.00 as resistance.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After Friday’s inside day had held the range’s lower-end, gapping up above its 2.60 upper-end had extended already to 2.64. It reacted down back within the range, but a second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm a new upleg is underway.
Mid-day Update… Sparing the formalities.
Noon hour low is already testing the target.
The next lower objective under 1899.00 is 1884.00. Not exiting this morning’s bias environment back above a relevant level would leave 1884.00 outstanding to become “unfinished business below.”
So much simpler just to fulfill its test. Which was done soon after noon. And now it’s being probed down to 1881.50.
1884.00 is essentially this afternoon’s bias-down signal. The bullish scenario would avoid triggering the signal at 1:20, instead of trying to bounce back from its target.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 29, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Of at least two high-profile reports on Tuesday, one is also reliably influential to price action. And coming post-open, any noticeable reaction to the two pre-open reports would likely be duplicated.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1904.50 | 1894.25 |
| …would target | 1911.25 | 1901.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1894.00 | 1883.75 |
| …would target | 1888.50 | 1878.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Venting, indeed.
Opening sell-off probes last week’s lows.
The post-open crowd was going to acknowledge last night’s selling one way, or another. Only gapping up would have inhibited a post-open extension of Friday afternoon’s plunge.
But what could have been absorbed around 1900.00 has instead extended to test 1893.00.
And that’s not the bearish part, probing fresh lows, no matter how low. Testing any fresh low can be potentially bullish, depending on when and how its test begins, and on when and how it ends.
Probing under last week’s 1897.00-1899.00 low AFTER 10:15 could have been rendered moot by then recovering it by 11:30. Isolating its test to the bias environment would make it only noise.
However 1897.00-1899.00 was already being probed when the bias environment began at 10:15. Rejecting it must recover the last downleg’s origin when the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. That’s essentially 1909.00.
Currently a bounce is testing 1897.00-1899.00 as resistance. There is no unfinished business below, since 1-minute RSI diverged at the low. But back under 1894.50 would resume the decline, next targeting 1884.00.