S&P
The First Trade… Back to square (-1).
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s 1938.25 low had probed under Friday’s low before reversing well into positive territory. Monday’s gap up extended higher to probe above Friday’s intraday highs up to 1969.00. When the bias environment lapsed at 11:30, so did the bullish WedEX influence, unable to prevent a noon hour slide to 1944.25. The afternoon rallied back to 1961.25, but didn’t gain traction for the effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex firmed a little further to 1965.00 before retracing to 1958.00. Sideways ranging had dipped back to its lower-end into Europe’s opens. The bottom literally dropped out as a three-hour plunge fell to 1928.25.
If, then…
There’s no bullish reason to be retesting the same 1945.00 pullback limit that had stemmed Thursday night’s plunge. It also trapped Friday’s late low, and Monday’s noon hour low, both being intraday tests. It’s a different challenge to gap down under 1945.00. And gapping under 1938.00 would break the “lower prior highs” from which 1945.00 is derived. The next lower attraction would be 1918.00; under 1915.00 would target 1899.00. It’s possible this sell-off has become exacerbated ahead of this evening’s Yom Kippur observance, and its afternoon liquidity drain. Exiting the open above 1949.00 would suggest the selling has been limited to overnight action, opening the door to revisit last week’s highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 1945.00 would be the best chance at recovering the 1948.00 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1976.25 | 1966.25 |
| …would target | 1984.00 | 1973.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1965.50 | 1954.50 |
| …would target | 1959.00 | 1948.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
[Click here for the Morning Bias]
Monday afternoon’s bias-down signal was almost rejected. Price had risen high enough, and soon enough, but then peaked… The 3:10-3:20 timing window could have confirmed the final hour’s entry above the bias environment’s high. Price was well-positioned again, but not optimistic enough to push higher… Then the last-minute surge avoided probing fresh highs into the close. More restrained optimism.
Recovering back to Monday’s 1969.00 high is already likely. Multiple instances of patient buying does makes the retest of Thursday’s 2011.75 high likely, too. Of course, trending up into Monday’s close would make a gap down under the afternoon’s 1948.75 low form a session-decline setup.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbpzvx
This evening, monitor overnight Globex price action in these chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Expiration’s over.
It’s time to see what this market intends without that influence.
This afternoon’s 1954.50 bias-down signal triggered. Actually, it was already probed during the noon hour. And not by a little. Its 1948.75 bias-down target was probed down to 1944.25.
Before Friday’s open, we were keying off of that area to determine whether the overnight plunge was done. (It was.) Both tests launched bounces. Today’s bounce to 1957.00 probed above the bias-down signal during the bias-down environment.
Groundwork has been laid to avoid resuming the decline. The noon hour’s low filled the gap back to Friday’s 1946.00 cash session close which neutralized its attraction below. Two buy signals triggered during its reaction up to 1957.00. The bias environment retested this afternoon’s 1948.75 bias-down target as support.
Now the bias environment is lapsing. Back under this afternoon’s 1948.75 bias-down target could undo the groundwork laid by the recovery attempt. Otherwise, back above 1954.50 and preferably also above 1957.00 could target fresh session highs above 1969.00 today.
Note the Falling Wedge / running correction that preceded the low, plunging into and out of it. We’ll be discussing it during the post-market Wrap…
Daily Spot… Weekend reactions.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reaction down to the upper-end of the 1.1275-1.1345 range extended down overnight to gap down Monday at the range’s lower-end. Extending lower intraday tested 1.1200, so that back above 1.1275 would now resume the rally. There is otherwise no active sell signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The reaction down from having fulfilled the 1141.50 target tested 1129.40 Sunday night, which must hold to maintain the rally’s momentum. Back above 1138.70 would resume the rally.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 15.10 pullback limit held another shallow test Sunday night. Back above 15.33 would resume the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s steep rally to 155-24 resistance reacted down into Monday’s gap down at 155-00 that trended down intraday to test 153-28. Back above 154-14 would resume the rally. Otherwise, the correction could extend next down to test 152-30.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying Sunday night back to 46.00 resistance wasn’t rejected Monday, so Friday’s break lower wasn’t confirmed, but the rally’s resumption is not signaled without also recovering 46.60.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night and extending lower into Monday’s open prevents a buy setup from triggering without first retesting Monday’s 2.55 opening gap from above 2.61 “higher prior lows.”