S&P
Daily Spot… Gold is gone.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap down immediately began failing to exploit Tuesday’s firming, which had avoided confirming any prior breakout. Reversing up almost immediately does barely qualify as exploiting the recent stability. But there is no time left for a bullish pattern to delay extending higher.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having tested the 1125.70 bounce limit at Tuesday’s high, the decline was free to resume Wednesday, which it did aggressively by falling to new lows testing 1100.00. Extending under 1098.40 would require new lows under 1078.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still delaying the gap-fill back down to 14.35 despite Gold now tumbling makes the pattern even less decipherable, and less interesting to trade without it first resolving that issue.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending Tuesday’s 154-17 sell signal gapped down Wednesday to fresh lows testing 152-14. That was recovered as stocks fell, back into positive territory probing 10 ticks above the 154-17 sell signal. The sell signal was not confirmed, but retesting Wednesday’s gap open at 153-14 would help a recovery attempt to extend higher intraday.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sliding only slightly Wednesday to 44.10 still managed to probe under Tuesday’s low. Now there’s a timing requirement to begin probing fresh highs above 50.00, as any aggressive weakness Thursday would be credible for extending down.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still bouncing within its recent narrow range is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from the range’s lower-end, but still within the range. That’s still not an enviable position of strength, unable to avoid an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down. But recovering a reaction down that originated within the channel would help to form a bottom.
Pre-close View… Done, or down?
Unfinished business below is neutralized.
Yesterday afternoon’s 1952.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. That didn’t prevent extending higher to and through its 1957.75 bias-up target before the bias environment had lapsed.
That didn’t invalidate the “no-bias trending” that required being retraced. But it reflected an underlying counter-trend sponsorship to be feared and respected. In fact, Tuesday’s rally extended another 11 points into the close, and then another 23 points overnight. That didn’t invalidate the no-bias trending’s required retracement, either.
There’s no timing element to that retracement. But it has now been retraced entirely, down to 1949.75. Nothing lower is required, although there’s potential to yesterday’s 1948.50 print at 1:20.
Meanwhile, the final hour was just entered back above the bias environment’s lows. It was positioned to be more decisive than it accomplished, but trending back above a relevant higher through 3:10-3:20 should be feared and respected. Otherwise, it might be impressive enough just to retest 1967.25.
Raising the bar by lowering the price.
Rewarding yesterday afternoon’s buyers is a little more difficult. PLUS a site update.
The overnight rally doesn’t qualify as rewarding yesterday afternoon’s buyers for having gained traction. That’s usually the following morning. That, or the following afternoon.
It clearly wasn’t this morning, which retraced all of the overnight rally up to 1992.00 back down unchanged at 1965.50. But not into negative territory.
It’s difficult giving buyers any benefit of the doubt without exiting the noon hour back above a prior high like 1973.75. But the noon hour pierced it only by 1 tick while 1-minute RSI diverged negatively. And now yesterday’s lat-minute 1968.75 high is being tested as support.
Even fresh lows won’t invalidate the potential for resuming the rally this afternoon. Fresh lows like testing the 1964.50 bias-down signal… without triggering it. Recovery potential remains alive so long as sellers don’t extend down during the afternoon’s bias environment. But delaying a recovery until this afternoon would require its slope to turn exponential, or else be sucked back down to yesterday’s lows.
SITE DEVELOPMENT NEWS: The decision has been made to remove the password protection while the developers consider another solution. Meanwhile, THIS LINK can serve as your link to the site. A direct path there upon login is being programmed now. I every much appreciate how patient everyone is being with this issue, thank you.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, but not very influential. Pre-open Claims has gotten a track record of having no influence, at least not without being a surprise. The afternoon’s 30-year auction will be interesting with the bond having fallen recently and dramatically to fresh lows.
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1975.50 | 1974.00 |
| …would target | 1980.75 | 1979.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1965.75 | 1964.50 |
| …would target | 1961.25 | 1959.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.