S&P
Mid-day Update… Stuck below the rut.
But another upside attraction created.
This morning’s 2932.25 bias-down signal was tested down to 2931.00 and held, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2942.00 bias-up signal. But the recovery from 2931.00 peaked at 2939.50, so 2942.00 became “unfinished business.”
Add that to yesterday afternoon’s 2942.75 bias-up target that was left outstanding.
Now this afternoon’s 2930.25 bias-down signal has also held its test down to 2928.50. This puts into play an offsetting test of its 2942.75 bias-up signal. Currently, 2934.00 is being attacked.
Resuming yesterday morning’s surge has been delayed by yesterday afternoon’s ranging that persisted overnight. Backing-and-filling now is a little bit of overkill. It can still be productive, if resolved up today. But not yet recovering this afternoon would suggest a deeper pullback to find buyers.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 25, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Durable Goods is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. Any noticeable reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports, of there’s really only one, and it’s pretty far removed from the open.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2935.00 | 2937.50 |
| …would target | 2940.25 | 2942.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2927.50 | 2930.25 |
| …would target | 2921.75 | 2924.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… From rut to rut.
Bias-down signal test, meet bias-up signal test.
The lower-end of yesterday afternoon’s range was tested overnight down to 2932.00. 
And retested. The lower-end held, and its retest launched a bounce attacking the range’s 2939.75 upper-end. The upper-end held.
Dipping through the open extended to retest the lower-end of yesterday afternoon’s range down to 2931.00. The test held. Not only the test of overnight lows, but of this morning’s 2933.25 bias-down signal.
This is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2942.00 bias-up signal is in-play.
Already 2939.00 is being pierced. Actually fulfilling the 2942.00 bias-up signal’s test would also come within 3 ticks of yesterday’s “unfinished business” at 2942.75, which would neutralize its attraction. This wouldn’t necessarily end the rally, but new objectives would need to be established.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… When is a range not a range?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Breaking out from a sideways overnight range tends to be retraced, when the breakout occurs 60-90 minutes before the open. Monday night’s 2908.50-2914.00 range broke higher during that window, but it self-corrected pre-open. This allowed a post-open rally to extend. Which it did, fulfilling its 2926.50-2928.00 objective before the bias environment began lapsing. And then extending to attack 2940.00 into the noon hour. Despite triggering the afternoon’s bias-up, there was no momentum either way. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways between 2934.50-2938.00. The 2942.75 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business,” and the session qualifies as a breaking still needing a second consecutive higher close Wednesday to confirm.
Overnight action’s new info…
Two wrongs don’t make a right, and two ranges don’t make a single range, despite being contained within a prior range. Like yesterday afternoon’s narrow sideways range, which has contained last night’s price action. But last night’s price action can be segmented into at least two ranges. First, the ranging narrowed for a couple of hours, hovering in a 2-point range and still attacking 2940.00. Trending down into midnight then entered another narrow 2-point range testing 2932.00, but at the lower-end of Tuesday afternoon’s range. Its retest after Europe’s opens launched a recovery that is now attacking the range’s upper-end.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
S&Ps are now attacking prior highs. The underlying cash index came within 4-5 points of its ~2841 Sep 21 high. Futures then were trading at a 5-6 point premium, now equivalent to 2646.00-2647.00, and the current equivalent is 2844.00. While those are likely to influence price action if tested, there’s no reason for the market to have come this close to the highs without ultimately probing higher. But the path there is never assured, especially when ranging develops just short of resistance. Regardless, this is “ineffectual pessimism” that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. We’ll apply setups derived from the opening print and bias parameters to help determine likely resolutions.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2929.00 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2933.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2936.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2937.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2942.00 bias-up signal.