S&P
Pre-close view… Whip, saw, repeat.
Much overlapped range trying to ignore the attraction below.
The noon hour had trended up already through the afternoon”s 1925.00 bias-up signal. The 1:20 bias timing window was overlapping the 1931.00 bias-up target, but not by enough to renew the signal. Price action since then has ranged choppily sideways.
Very choppily. And very sideways.
This cuisinart rotating around 1929.00-1936.00 includes reacting to the Beige Book release. Its effort to push price back over the cliff was rescued, if only by discovering the cliff”s shallow 1929.00 basin.
Now another dive off the cliff is underway, this time following fresh highs testing 1937.00. The 1929.00 basin is being probed down to 1926.00, but real cliff diving here should essentially slide through one or two air pockets back to 1925.00 and then lower.
Perhaps the ongoing bias environment delayed reversing down. Well, the bias environment is now lapsing. So, not dropping even more sharply soon would start becoming unlikely to drop at all.
Daily Spot… Trending on vacation.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s gap down didn”t extend lower intraday, so it didn”t necessarily reject Tuesday”s firming, or the potential for rallying back up to prior highs. But there is no bullish reason to further delay obvious rallying.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having fulfilled the minimum bounce objective Tuesday to within a dime at 1147.40, the reaction down got a little weaker Wednesday. Any higher high would next target a retest of the rally”s original 1169.00 target, and higher to the 1179.50 area.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow choppiness around 14.55 resistance continued to fight the requirement for filling the gap back to last Wednesday”s 14.35 gap down, which makes rally attempts less credible so long as it remains outstanding.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up again Wednesday also failed to extend higher intraday again. That didn”t result in a new downleg, although there is that vulnerability if only for being range bound instead of surging through 155-16 to retest the highs.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s post-close low had reacted to inventory data, which was repeated after bouncing overnight in reaction to Wednesday”s EIA report. Reacting up sharply from Monday”s 43.65 prior low”s retest to 46.00 further suggested that Tuesday”s retracement had not reversed the trend down, and that the rally”s momentum could still retest Monday”s high up to 50.10.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s restrained optimism of gapping up within the range without extending through it would have made fresh highs Wednesday credible for extending intraday. But Wednesday gapped down, also within the range, still giving clearance to fresh highs Thursday to extend. But the EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, so a knee-jerk reaction down can”t be precluded.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 3 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s calendar is busy, and it has a couple of high-profile items that have track records for influencing price action. Claims isn”t usually one of them, except for this week when Friday”s Employment Situation report can add significance and eyeballs.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1928.25 | 1925.00 |
| …would target | 1934.25 | 1931.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1915.00 | 1911.75 |
| …would target | 1908.50 | 1905.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Head-fake it until sellers make it.
Opening decline is setting today”s tone.
After recovering almost 20 points to attack the 1939.00 overnight high before the open, a last-minute blip-up pierced 1941.00 by 3 ticks.
Recovering 1941.00 would have rejected the head-fake template discussed in The First Trade blog post and during the pre-market Tour. Similarly, reacting down immediately back under 1938.00 confirmed it.
Back under 1938.00 and 1934.00, to 1927.00. And after consolidating back to 1934.00, that”s breaking lower to test 1918.00.
The head-fake template hasn”t completely rejected the overnight rally, but that”s its objective. Meanwhile, this morning is still bias-up. In fact, its bias-up signal is renewed, for having exceeded the 1922.75 bias-up target through 10:15. But all renewed targets have been met already.
There consolidation resisted by 1934.00 had some instances of “ineffectual optimism.” Now there”s more, bouncing off of 1918.00 after barely touching yesterday”s post-close surge. Yesterday”s cash session close equated to 1907.75 and RSIs were oversold simultaneously at the 1898.75 low to require its retest. That”s the least of it, so long as the bias environment isn”t exited in rally mode.