S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two reports are due simultaneously at 10:00 Tuesday. One is reliably influential to price action, which can enhance the other report”s effect in case of a surprise. The afternoon”s Fed speaker should influence price action, too.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
1:10 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1985.25 | 1982.00 |
| …would target | 1989.25 | 1986.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1977.00 | 1973.75 |
| …would target | 1970.25 | 1967.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Satisfied sellers, impatient buyers.
Bias-down target met, held, reacted, and nearly retraced.
The open firmed just enough to pierce the pre-open recovery high by 2 ticks up to 1977.75. Then price reversed down sharply to 1962.25.
The 1963.25 bias-down signal had been met and it was holding as support at 10:15, so the bias-down signal did not renew. And as is often the case, the decline ceased.
And as is occasionally the case, the decline was retraced. The 1970.00 bias-down signal was probed to also test 1976.25. Recall from the First Trade blog post that recovering 1976.25 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility could have made bias-down obsolete. Instead, it was tested during a bias-down environment. And its resistance has reacted down.
Being a bias-down environment, probing back above the bias-down signal requires being retraced. Often, the 10:15 print is retraced, too — that”s 1966.25. In fact, a reaction down from 1976.25 is now probing under 1970.00 to within 2 ticks of 1966.25.
Back above 1972.00 would target fresh post-open highs at 1979.25 or 1980.75. Any higher would target 1996.00-2000.00. Otherwise, the attraction remains alive back down to Thursday”s 1944.00 low — and to support along the way at 1960.50 and 1953.50.
This morning”s 1970 bias-down signal
This morning”s 1970 bias-down signal has seemed intent upon supporting pre-open price action. Post-open strength could test 1979-1981 before suggesting the bias-down signal won”t be triggered anyway by 10:15. Meanwhile, initial weakness back under 1969.50 and 1966.25 would more likely resume last night”s opening plunge, attracted further back down toward, to, or through Thursday”s 1944 low… Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxvkyb
The First Trade… Now, THAT’S a last-minute plunge.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap down was eventually retraced to fill the gap back to Thursday”s 1986.00 close. But Thursday”s late 42-point surge (which had been preceded by a 42-point plunge) never resumed. Thursday afternoon”s sellers had gained traction, but their influence on Friday”s session was limited to preventing the recovery from extending. Ranging sideways all day ended by surging back up to and through 1986.00 into and out of the cash session close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open immediately plunged about 30 points to 1959.25. Flat-to-higher ranging since then — through China”s trading and through Europe”s opens — firmed back up to 1973.00 and 1977.25. A reaction down to 1965.25 has largely recovered.
If, then…
Friday afternoon was vulnerable already to plunging back to Thursday”s 1944.00 low. Sunday night”s immediate plunge doesn”t ensure exploiting that vulnerability, not any deeper than already retracing it by 61.8% to attack 1959.00. Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment can quickly become a sentiment extreme — so, not extending down quickly this morning can instead begin a recovery back up through last week”s highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1976.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 1970.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1964.25 would be likely to trigger the 1970.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1960.50 would be unlikely to recover the 1963.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal.