S&P
Pre-close view… Fools rushed in.
Minimum corrective bounce target met.
This afternoon”s 1986.00 bias-up target was already being tested at 1:20. It wasn”t exceeded to renew the bias-up signal. But it was still a bias-up environment… until 2:30 when the bias environment began lapsing. Or until coming within 10-15 minutes of that.
In fact, that”s when this afternoon”s 1976.00 bias-up signal started giving way as support. All the way down to 1944.00. That was actually a test of the 1949.00 target, and each bar there overlapped 1949.00, warning that sellers were losing momentum. Combine that with oversold RSIs, and suddenly 1979.00 is being tested as resistance.
Having tested one big corrective bounce target at 1986.00, any higher target would still put into play 1996.00 and 2000.00. Regardless, this remains only a temporary rally, prior not only to retesting the week”s lows, but probably also to resuming the aggressive decline.
Daily Spot… Testing limits all over the place.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The maximum pullback limit was probed Thursday, making a retest of fresh highs above 1.1800 much more difficult without either gapping up sharply to reject Thursday”s break, or else taking time to develop an accumulative pattern.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday”s consolidation under the 1125.40 pullback limit didn”t extend down Thursday but the consolidation must now resolve up to confirm the pullback has been only temporary.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s surge back up to 14.55 resistance helps to begin forming a bottom that could launch a recovery without trending down to lower lows. But it is premature to begin recovering yet..
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh low finally reacted up intraday to test the 157-07 buy signal, which wasn”t recovered, much like the decline”s last two buy signals were attacked to within 1-2 ticks before resuming the decline.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s gap up trended considerably higher throughout the day, much more so than the bottoming pattern suggested was likely at this stage. Regardless of being so substantial the reversal attempt is too premature and impatiently formed to avoid a retest of the lows before completing a bottom.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, and the knee-jerk reaction up recovered to fill the gap back to Wednesday”s 2.69 close. But only temporarily, as the balance of the session drifted back down to the week”s lows testing 2.63. Early strength Friday above 2.69 would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 28 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday”s post-open econ report probably won”t impact the thinking on when and whether the Fed hikes rates. But it does tend to influence price action anyway. The afternoon”s rig count will be interesting as energies may be forming bottoms.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
All biased-up and nowhere to go.
Bias-up target met and held.
This morning”s last buy signal at 1965.25 had already met its 1973.00 target, probing it up to 1977.75. A pullback down to 1968.25 allowed 1973.00 to become a buy signal, and it was triggered before noon. Advancing into the bias timing window fulfilled the 1986.00 bias-up target.
Exceeding it at 1:20 would have renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 1996.00. Fresh highs by 1:30 would have been credible for extending higher to 1996.00. Lacking either of those setups, it”s still a bias-up environment. Fresh highs can be probed.
While a retest of the high is likely, beware its rejection and reaction down into the bias environment lapsing at 2:30. That can get carried away to the downside.
Otherwise, the rally isn”t required to extend any higher today, but the door remains open — whether during the bias-up environment or after it, so long as pullbacks haven”t begun trending down.
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1979.25 | 1976.00 |
| …would target | 1989.25 | 1986.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1968.75 | 1965.50 |
| …would target | 1959.75 | 1956.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.