S&P
This weekend”s Saturday Review will
This weekend”s Saturday Review will once again discuss the same old topping pattern that has been our focus every weekend for almost half a year. Oh, there”s a few new points to make — about 530 of them Friday, alone, and 1100 points from Tuesday”s high.
We”ll discuss what”s next, gaming out strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning”s possible opens. And we”ll also do instant analysis of any stock chart you choose. Join us by 9:30am ET Saturday at…
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/784-183-137
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1986.00 | 1982.50 |
| …would target | 1992.50 | 1989.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1968.00 | 1964.50 |
| …would target | 1962.00 | 1958.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Well, that was fun. And
Well, that was fun. And it”s probably only going to get funner. The bearish WedEX was influential Friday afternoon, so Monday morning is likely to behave bearishly, too. And this is a very dangerous spot in the chart for bearish behavior.
We”ll discuss the bigger picture at this weekend”s Saturday Review. I”ll send out its link overnight. Meanwhile, we did summarize the day and discuss other markets coverage during the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzjwbh
Pre-close view… Better late than never?
Closing down sharply at fresh lows on expiration.
That about says it all. There is nothing bullish about this session. And nothing that isn”t bearish about the afternoon.
The bearish WedEX was productive, making it likely to be productive Monday morning, too. That might mean a gap up trends straight down, but the market seems more interested in opening lower.
This could be very bearish, and we”ll discuss it in greater detail during the Saturday Review.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday no the way to fulfilling 1.1220 without closing above it didn”t prevent extending higher overnight and gapping up Friday to test the next higher objective at 1.1360-1.1385 intraday. .
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Thursday night attacked the next higher target at 1169.00 to within almost $1. Intraday highs held 1158.00 resistance.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The underperformance vs. Gold became more obvious Friday as an overnight probe above last week”s highs was reversed back down into negative territory for the duration of the session. Back above 15.45 would start to signal that Silver intended to play “catch-up.”
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight highs retested 160-20 but dipped back into negative territory during Friday”s open. That was recovered into Friday afternoon in a flight-to-quality. The second consecutive higher close above a multi-session range now requires there to be a third higher close, albeit not necessarily consecutively on Monday.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The decline extended, still not at any new pace other than to have begun sliding from its recent multi-range consolidation. While Wednesday”s confirmed breakout is now fulfilled by a minimum third lower close, the energy market doesn”t tend to end trends on Fridays. So, at least a lower intraday low is likely, and meanwhile the potential to 37.55 remains intact.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The confirmed breakout”s third lower close was finally produced Friday. But a lower low is likely since this market doesn”t tend to bottom on Fridays.