S&P
Daily Spot… Pullback day.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday under 1.1120 was extended initially to attack 1.1075 to trying forming an Island Reversal setup. A recovery back above 1.1120 did avoid reversing momentum down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday”s rally revised the pullback limit up to 1112.00, which was tested at Thursday”s open and essentially through the balance of the day. It must hold in order to maintain the rally”s momentum.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s pullback held its test of Tuesday”s “lower prior highs” at 15.30, maintaining the rally”s momentum.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the 158-08 pullback limit into Wednesday”s close was immediately extended at Thursday”s open. The session basically consolidated under 158-08 down to 157-14, whose break would have signaled the trend reversing down.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Without even threatening to recover, fresh lows have now pierced 42.00. The breakout close immediately follows an unconfirmed breakout close, which makes Friday less likely to close lower. But that”s not yet to be taken as bottoming, as the sequence can repeat indefinitely while price continues sliding.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report triggered a spike down through 2.88 to attack 2.83, which gradually weakened from there back through Tuesday”s prior low to test 2.77. Closing back above 2.83 would signal the rally had resumed.
Good things come.
Starting to reward yesterday”s recovery.
Yesterday afternoon”s bias environment was exited at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high, and the final hour hour was entered above the bias environment”s high. Buyers gained traction for their efforts. Their usual reward for this setup is to extend through the next morning”s bias environment.
So long as the following open hasn”t rejected that traction, the morning may instead back-and-fill. But only that, and not trend down, delaying the reward until the afternoon.
So, this morning”s dip did hold multiple tests of 2075.25 support, while failing to trigger the 2077.75 bias-down signal. Ranging had narrowed in to 2079.25 when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Trending that began then has extended higher relentlessly to now touch 2089.00.
2088.00 was this morning”s bias-up signal, so there is natural resistance around it. Regardless, this morning”s ~2083.00 “lower prior highs” should be tested for more than a moment — if at all — before resuming the rally to higher highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 14 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday”s two high-profile econ reports each have reliable track records for influencing price action. And if the pre-open report triggers a decisive reaction, then the post-open report”s reaction is likely to be similar.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.00 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2095.75 | 2091.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2080.00 | 2075.25 |
| …would target | 2074.50 | 2069.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Uncollected.
Opening dip delays rewarding yesterday”s recovery.
Trending still higher overnight did not qualify as rewarding yesterday”s recovery for having gained traction. The likely reward is to trend higher the following morning.
Which this morning surely has not.
The overnight rally to 2093.00 greeted the open at or under yesterday”s 2082.25 cash session close equivalent. That pullback tested 2075.25 three times before rallying back up to 2082.25.
Meanwhile, the 2077.75 bias-down signal was overlapped in time to invoke the grace period. Dipping to 2073.25 was nevertheless recovered to overlap 2077.75 at 10:30.
As warned during the pre-market Tour, anything signaling a bearish context this morning would be suspicious. So, this is a noN-bias environment — the bias-down target isn”t in-play, and neither is an offsetting test of the bias-up signal.
The backing-and-filling might have bottomed, but it may not be ready to resolve up. Not rewarding yesterday”s recovery this morning should then deliver that reward this afternoon. All of which assumes this morning”s bias environment isn”t exited in decline.