S&P
Daily Spot… Yuan good devaluation deserves another.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting to Tuesday night”s Yuan sequel drove price sharply higher through Monday”s test of 1.1075 resistance and through 1.1120 resistance to test 1.1220. Closing above 1.1225 would target 1.1345, but a dip back to at least 1.1075 is likelier.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Tuesday night and Wednesday probed Monday night”s 1119.00 high and closed higher, targeting 1144.00 so long as pullbacks now hold 1112.00 as support.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The rally resumed Wednesday by gapping up and extending to test 15.55. Now holding 15.25 would keep alive potential to 15.90.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yuan”s devaluation triggered a new upleg overnight that peaked upon testing 160-20 resistance. It was retraced almost entirely before Wednesday”s open. But fresh highs back up to 159-28 still probed back into negative territory under 158-26.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging at or under Sunday night”s 43.50 gap down through Wednesday has converted 44.25 into a preliminary buy signal.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s open gapped up to the 2.88 buy signal and extended a nickel higher, presumably confirming 2.83”s recovery that signaled a new upleg is forming. Gapping up isn”t optimal at this stage, but gets a benefit of the doubt..
All she wrote?
[Note:The bias parameters were in error earlier, but have been corrected.]
Speaking of which… The 2063.50 bias-up target was exceeded at the 1:20 bias timing window. Its 2069.50-2070.25 renewed bias-up target is already being touched.
And this is after rallying already 20 points from the noon hour”s low.
Presumably, the noon hour rally wasn”t just counter-trend action. The probe back above Friday”s “higher prior lows” has outlasted a timing window. The open could have done that, but waiting until now is no less valid — just less likely to extend straight up without first correcting.
If sellers do retake control by failing to hold Friday”s ~2062.75 lows through a timing window”s exit, the afternoon”s recovery attempt would be in jeopardy. That wouldn”t necessarily extend to fresh lows today, but the 2035.00 target would be in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 132015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s high-profile econ reports like Claims and Retail Sales don”t have reliable track records for influencing price action. But they can be very influential in case of surprises. Meanwhile, the 30-year auction can inhibit price action while awaiting results.
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2063.75 | 2059.00 |
| …would target | 2068.25 | 2063.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2055.75 | 2051.00 |
| …would target | 2049.50 | 2044.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Not exactly slowing.
Opening plunge makes new lows likely.
The 2064.00 open extended the pre-open pullback a little deeper to 2058.50. Its reaction up resolved down a little deeper, too. Long story short, the drop accelerated and eventually touched 2046.50.
That”s reacting up pretty aggressively to 2052.75. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. back under 2049.00 would signal that retest underway, if not also resuming the decline targeting 2035.00.
Meanwhile, back above 2054.00 would target 2059.75. Much higher than that would become likely also to test Friday”s 2062.50 “higher prior lows.” A post-open bounce already tested 2062.50 and resolved down, so any indication of its retest would suggest a bigger move underway targeting a probe above 2067.25.