S&P
Pre-close view…Holding on for dear life.
Did avoiding bias-down only delay a deeper down?
This afternoon”s 2073.00 bias-down signal was still being tested at 1:20 and 1:30 both to avoid triggering, and to avoid being rejected. The noN-bias environment ranged choppily sideways around 2073.00.
Then the bias environment started lapsing. But the drop didn”t resume, instead retracing up to 2077.00 into the final hour. Another couple of points have been added.
Closing above 2077.00 would position the market for the potential to isolate today”s decline, and to launch another recovery tomorrow. Closing under 2073.00 — or gapping down under 2073.00 tomorrow – would be likely instead to resume this morning decline to 2067.00.
Daily Spot… Skid marks
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The bounce extended even higher Tuesday, still without any buy signal, and without there having been any accumulation. Resistance was tested at 1.1075, and reacted down to attack 1.1000, whose break would start to signal momentum may be reversing back down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sharply higher highs overnight tested 1119.00 before reacting back down under 1105.00 and 1108.50, needing to recover both — and preferably also 1112.00 — to confirm momentum remains pointed up.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gold”s overnight extension was ignored but its reaction down was more influential. Regardless, there is no bullish reason to further delay a more obvious rally leg Wednesday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping back up extended higher to fill the gap back to Fridays” 158-18 close and to probe Friday”s high, probing fresh highs above. Topping signals must appear almost immediately to avoid extending higher to 160-20. Topping signals such as closing back under 158-08 or lower
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An overnight surge peaked suddenly upon touching the 45.15 bounce limit, resolving down in new lows probing under Sunday”s gap down and under 43.00.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s testing of 2.83 didn”t extend higher overnight, and faced pushback intraday Tuesday, still needing to close above 2.83 and 2.88 to launch an upleg.
Going the distance.
Targeting the origin.
Friday”s entire session was spent under 2077.00, and mostly also under 2073.00. A late squeeze had recovered enough to essentially overlap 2073.00 into the close. Just being a Friday made any break suspicious if it didn”t follow-through into trending.
But Friday”s late squeeze was suspicious, too. An extended narrow range had broken higher suddenly right after the 3:10-3:20 window, and peaked before the 3:27-3:52 position-squaring window. That was weak-handed sponsorship. Gapping up Monday and extending higher did not change the rally”s origin.
Now that late surge”s 2067.25 origin will probably be retraced entirely. This afternoon”s 2073.00 bias-down signal would have put into play already, but bias-down didn”t trigger. Neither was it rejected, as it was still being overlapped at 1:20 and 1:30 to signal noN-bias.
Regardless, fresh lows should still extend down to 2067.25, where not recovering back above 2073.00 could be very bearish. Avoiding it might be possible only by exiting the bias environment back above 2079.25 — and nothing suggests that”s in the works.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 12 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday”s Fed speaker is high-profile and likely to influence price action. So is the post-open JOLTS report that doesn”t always confirm or clarify the prior week”s Employment Situation report.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2086.75 | 2081.50 |
| …would target | 2091.25 | 2086.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.25 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2072.50 | 2067.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.