S&P
Exiting the bias environment at
Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high didn”t attract new sponsorship to extend the rally. But neither was the rally invalidated, although overbought RSIs at its high were neutralized into Monday”s close.
There”s no requirement to extend higher Tuesday, only a likelihood, presumably begun by gapping up above 2100 if not also above 2105.50. The seemingly infinite loop of on-again/off-again new highs is on-again, although the origin now is the weakest, yet. The attraction to new highs is being challenged more than ever by a growing attraction below. That attraction could wait to force a collapse from new highs.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Tour, recorded here:
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Pre-close view… Another leg kicking free?
Upside target met, not yet rejected.
Recall that this morning”s open created potential up to 2100.00. Testing it during this afternoon”s no-bias environment would have required rejecting it, and probably by reversing the trend down steeply.
Tts test was delayed until the bias environment came within view of lapsing. A surge to 2100.75 was retraced back down under 2098.00 where the surge had originated But the retracement hasn”t extended down into a reversal.
Anyway, a reversal has room down to the 2096.00 area before signaling a more substantial drop targeting 2091.00 and 2088.00.
The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, but the final hour isn”t being entered any higher. Back above 2099.50 would at least target fresh session highs, where overbought RSIs require a retest. Trending up to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would still confirm buyers are gaining traction to extend the rally.
Daily Spot… Gold gets going.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s recovery of the 1.0920-1.0945 bounce limit was extended Monday. While the decline may yet resume — and remains likelier to resume than to reverse the trend up — the door is open to a more substantial recovery. There is currently no active signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Recovering back above 1083.00 and 1087.00 after probing under them intraday Friday was very bullish. That was confirmed by extending sharply higher from Monday”s open to probe above 1100.00 and 1105.00. The next confirmation is to close above 1112.00 upon touching it to put 1144.00 into play, rather than closing back under it.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending sharply higher Monday after closing Friday above 14.75 has put into play 15.95-16.05 so long as 14.90 now holds as support.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Regardless of closing Friday above the 158-08 target, no higher target was put into play. Monday”s gap down to the 157-20 pullback limit extended lower from there to probe under the prior pullback limit at 156-24. The gap back up to Friday”s 158-18 close should be fulled at some point before a top can finish forming, but Monday”s drop can extend a little lower first down to 155-16.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night”s open gapped down to a fresh low testing 43.35 and firmed ahead of Monday”s open, then through it to almost attack the 45.15 bounce limit, with potential for extending a corrective bounce to 46.75.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to the 2.83 buy signal and ranging around it intraday doesn”t qualify as triggering it. But extending through 2.88 Tuesday would be unlikely unless a rally were underway.
A matter of time.
Still probing fresh highs.
Higher highs are earned by surging out of a gap up without reversing through the bias timing window. Not just probing fresh highs, but actual trending. This morning”s rally to the 2095.00 area has extended higher to test 2097.00.
And now that”s being probed, too.
Pullbacks haven”t done any damage. This morning”s pullbacks stopped optimistically short of their potential before recovering to fresh highs. Those were brief pullbacks. The noon hour”s pullbacks have been shallow and lasted longer. That”s optimism.
So is probing fresh highs during the noon hour.
None of which is a sell signal. In fact, the vulnerability to reverse down this afternoon can cut either the other way, surging sharply instead of sliding back down. Meanwhile, there”s still potential for extending up to 2100.00, if not also for triggering the 2098.25 bias-up signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 11 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Tuesday”s econ reports has a track record of influencing price action. And none really even has a high-profile.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET