S&P
Daily Spot… No boundaries.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night”s rally soared past the 1.1045 bounce limit to test 1.1120 by almost 40 pips. Closing back under 1.1075 would target 1.0990 just as a pullback. Closing under 1.1045 would have been likely to trend down sharply to at least retest recent lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight testing of the 1100.00 bounce limit reacted down before Monday”s open to retrace the post-close gain above Friday”s close back to the 10880.00 area. Another bounce was restrained by 1100.00 Monday, keeping the door open to reversing back down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging Monday suggests a recovery could be delayed by retesting last week”s lows. But immediately rallying would be more credible by gapping up (i.e. rallying already overnight).
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks helped Sunday night”s rally extend to the 155-26 target. There is no requirement to trend any higher, but reversing down requires closing under 154-00.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing under the 48.25 target that was met Thursday would have suggested the decline is extending to 44.25, except the session didn”t trend down. So, early trending Tuesday in either direction is likely to extend intraday.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Holding 2.77 support Monday didn”t attract sponsorship for a rally. Ignoring a second consecutive opportunity to break lower doesn”t prevent probing lower Tuesday. But hovering at support for so long does suggest that a break lower would be reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 28 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s calendar is busy, with 2-3 high-profile items. The post-open Consumer Confidence is most influential among them, but reaction to it should duplicate any earlier report”s reaction.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.50 | 2067.50 |
| …would target | 2080.75 | 2073.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2067.75 | 2060.00 |
| …would target | 2061.50 | 2054.50 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Go big, or go down.
Noon hour entered around the open. Big recovery requires big buying.
This morning”s drop had probed back above the 2063.50 opening print by 5 points. The reaction down held 1061.00, entering the noon hour overlapping 2063.50.
Despite its overlap including this morning”s 2065.00 bias-down target, that”s not high enough early enough to suggest sellers have been trapped, let alone that buyers are retaking control.
Back above 2067.00 would start getting that benefit of the doubt. That”s largely because the decline is free to resume, and there”s no requirement for any bounce at this stage. Even then, this being the noon hour, bouncing any higher must be maintained to be relevant.
Post-open review… Starting the end?
Post-open dip recovered entirely. Pre-open dip, not so much.
The overnight slide to 2065.00 had formed a Descending Triangle which was presumed to be preparing a break lower. Which it did, pre-open, to test 2062.00. Momentarily firming into the open was rejected by a deeper plunge to 2056.50.
A bounce there was retraced entirely back to the 2063.50 opening print before the first half-hour had ended. That price action qualified as an early recovery attempt. The recovery has since retraced the pre-open Descending Triangle”s 2069.00 high.
The continued recovery has formed an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. All of which remains in negative territory. Recovering above the open this early doesn”t leave much room for another dip without resuming the decline.
Back above the 2071.75 bias-down signal would get a big benefit of the doubt that the trend is reversing up — at least for near-term bottoming to form. Entering the noon hour back under 2065.00 and 2063.50 would suggest the decline never ended, and that 2051.00 is in-play.