S&P
A third late rally?
Pattern now requires bulls to repeat themselves. Again.
The bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, which allowed a fresh high above 2114.25 to extend higher into the noon hour. Extending higher trended, meaning that one fresh high”s reaction down was recovered to a second fresh high. This is not noise.
Fresh highs touched 2116.50, which isn”t substantial. Not being substantial, its reaction(s) dip more easily back under prior highs. But it”s only noise, so long as 2112.50 isn”t probed, too.
This afternoon”s “no-bias” environment comes within view of lapsing 45 minutes from now. Probing under 2111.00 would be credible for sliding through the close — like yesterday, except no recovery. Meanwhile, extending higher would require duplicating the prior two sessions” pattern, which doesn”t happen often.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 17 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Any meaningful reaction to Friday”s pre-open CPI is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open Consumer Sentiment number, so long as the data aren”t diametrically opposed.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2124.00 | 2117.00 |
| …would target | 2128.75 | 2122.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2117.75 | 2111.00 |
| …would target | 2112.50 | 2105.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Full count.
Sellers take two swings at regaining control.
The premise for a corrective dip relied largely on sellers rejecting the pre-open surge to 2115.50. Which they did, reacting down to the 2111.00 bias-up target.
Reacting up 5 points from that 2111.00 support wasn”t optimal for the premise, but neither was it invalidation. In fact, 2111.00 was retested again.
But that dip also bounced — so far, only up to 2114.00, and not to its origin, let alone through a 2114.25 buy signal. And while bouncing, the 10:15 and 10:30 timing windows have come and gone, without downtrending underway.
So, this morning is a bias-up environment. Its target was being touched at 10:15, instead of renewing the bias-up. Fresh lows could test the 2107.25 bias-up signal as support. It”s too late to invalidate it.
Unless 2107.25 is probed after exiting the bias environment, the afternoon could resume the rally. A deep corrective dip isn”t any likelier.
The overnight rally has extended
The overnight rally has extended to 2115.50. This extra optimism only reinforces the premise for correcting down through Friday morning. But it also requires that premise to be obvious soon after the open, or else a relentless march to new highs is underway. Details and other market coverage were reviewed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfzswy