S&P
Daily Spot… Gold hits its big target
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1110 bounce limit held Thursday, so reversing the trend up would now require closing above 1.1155. Otherwise, 1.0910 down to 1.0855 is in-play.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s s Employment Situation report was greeted already testing the longstanding 1158.50 target. A blip down to 1156.00 reacted up sharply to 1168.00 before ranging sideways into the close. There is no buy signal, and at least a retest of 1158.50 is likely, regardless of the resolution.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows were avoided during the past week fresh — or, at least confirming a break lower — while gold met its target. None of which is a buy signal, but makes the pattern vulnerable to leveraging buying pressure.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday morning”s reaction the Employment Situation report blipped down to touch 147-26. That”s a 61.8% proxy retracement of last Friday”s range, whose gap back to its 147-16 should still be filled.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing Thursday off of 56.85 — support that had held Wednesday”s low — bounced to 57.75 resistance. Resistance held, and its reaction down attacked 56.85. Closing above Thursday”s 57.95 high would end the decline and above 58.35 would reverse the trend up. The drop”s momentum otherwise remains intact.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.83 Thursday extended sharply higher to 2.89, filling the week-old gap back up to 2.86. Neutralizing its attraction above enabled a dip back to 2.83 as support. Closing above 2.83 requires extending higher aggressively without delay, to prove that filling the gap back up to 2.86 didn”t neutralize all remaining upside attractions.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 3 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy Independence Day! Even to our friends across the pond. Come on, now, aren”t you glad to be rid of us? US Markets have no regular trading hours. But Globex will trade into the afternoon, and chaRTroom access will be available, and I may comment.
Globex close
1:00pm ET
Cash Markets Closed
Banks open
Mail delivered
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2077.25 | 2069.00 |
| …would target | 2082.00 | 2074.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2070.25 | 2062.25 |
| …would target | 2065.00 | 2056.75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Fri(Thurs)day Factor.
Here comes the weekend. There goes liquidity.
Interim support was likely around 2069.00. In fact, its attack reacted up 3 points. But the decline soon resumed and extended under the overnight low down to 2066.25.
Noon hour illiquidity, end of week illiquidity, and 3-day weekend illiquidity each can influence price action. The 2062.25 objective”s test may be accelerated, or a counter-trend bounce could develop.
I could consider the latter being in-play back above 2069.00 (being attacked as resistance now). Or, at least, that”s the lowest I would consider playing it. Even then, with the lower objective in-play, a bounce could be limited to 3 points, if that.
Fulfilling the 2062.25 objective during the noon hour might find it more difficult to trend down further today. Extending deeper would have been likelier if the target were met already this morning. But now, new sponsorship is difficult to attract.
Consider being very careful if trading this afternoon — smaller in size, more selective in positions, tighter in stops, less frequent in re-entry. So long as the trend remains intact, it gets a benefit of the doubt for extending. But less liquidity means more vulnerability to reversing on a headline, and more difficulty in breaking out of a range.
Post-open review… Baked in.
Pre-open surge retraces entirely.
The reaction to this morning”s Employment Situation report touched the 2079.00 bias-up target. While we were conducting the pre-market Tour, that reaction melted away entirely back under 2073.00. Bouncing into the open only touched 2077.00 before reversing down to a fresh low at 2071.00.
That”s still positive territory — or, at least, unchanged vs. yesterday”s futures close that had extended a couple of points above the cash session close.
Meanwhile, a blip-up barely managed to touch the 2074.00 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of the 10:15 signal. Although still not recovered, that invoked the grace period.
Still not recovering 2074.00 through 10:30 would trigger late no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2062.25 bias-down signal, with some interim support likely around 2069.00. Recovering 2074.00 through 10:30 would target a retest of the 2079.00 pre-open high — and probably drift above it as afternoon volume shrinks.