S&P
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Join us in the morning at 9:30am ET for this weekend”s Saturday review. We”ll discuss the bigger picture, and game out possible opening strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning. Login here up to an hour before it”s start:
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Friday”s fresh lows left no unfinished business below. Contextual timing signals were fulfilled, 1-minute RSI managed to diverge positively, and the 2087.25 bias-down target held its test. But the 2092.75 bias-down signal wasn”t recovered until after entering the final hour, and it was still being tested into the close. Sellers didn”t gain traction, but shorts weren”t trapped. Gapping in either direction Monday is likely to trend, assuming the extreme sentiment avoids becoming a sentiment extreme.
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Here”s the link to Friday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpjmxr
Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.50 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2113.50 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.75 | 2088.75 |
| …would target | 2090.50 | 2082.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Ending on an optimistic note?
Fresh lows probed until the very last possible minute.
The afternoon”s 2087.25 bias-down target was met by 1:20, and wasn”t exceeded. Sellers were neither patient nor overwhelming. That didn”t preclude extending down further, since it was still a bias-down environment. But it prevented a bounce from exceeding its 2092.75 bias-down signal.
In fact, 2087.25 was probed momentarily by 1 point before bouncing to 2094.00. Ranging sideways into the final hour then surged to 2096.25.
It”s a little late on a Friday for fresh afternoon highs to produce another downleg. It”s also getting a little late for buyers to gain traction. So long as 2092.00 holds as support, extending higher should test this morning”s 2098.50-2099.25 preliminary levels.
Sellers gained no traction for today”s efforts, since the bias environment was exited within the noon hour”s range and the final hour was entered within the bias environment”s range. The downward influences were ultimately satisfied, albeit at their last possible moments. But the lows weren”t rejected in time to rely on trending back up next week, or absorbing another break lower.
REMINDER: This weekend”s Saturday Review will begin at 9:30am ET. There is no review next week due to the holiday..
Daily Spot… Bond bounce bids buh-bye.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The narrow consolidation didn”t bounce any higher — let alone up to 1.1250-1.1275 — before trying to resume the decline Friday. Tuesday”s 1.1146 prior low was tested as support through the afternoon, undermining whether the decline has resumed, which is difficult after so shallow of a corrective bounce.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows before and after Friday”s open down to 1167.00 didn”t prevent bouncing back into positive territory through the afternoon. But the decline”s momentum remains intact.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Friday probed fresh lows down to 15.45 but recovered back to the ~15.75 open and above the week”s prior lows, undermining the break”s momentum.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s gap down through 148-20 extended down sharply intraday to fresh lows at 147-11. So long as 147-30 holds as resistance and Monday closes negative to confirm Friday”s breakout, the next lower objective in-play is 146-04.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight gapped down Friday to test 58.75 before reversing back up into positive territory. Closing back above 60.30 would start to signal momentum reversing up, still needing confirmation above 61.20.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage to Aug which trades at a 1-cent premium from Jul] Friday”s gap down to 2.78 as support reacted up to Thursday”s 2.82 open. A fresh low intraday struggled to recover 2.78 into the close. Closing above would signal a new rally leg underway 2.84.
Waited too long to attract longs?
Still vulnerable to probing new lows. And then some.
My last post was confusing on this point: Probing new lows this morning would have fulfilled two contextual signals, from Wednesday morning”s break and from Thursday”s session-long decline. Waiting until this afternoon to probe new lows would be vulnerable to a melt-down..
New lows this morning had more time to attract counter-trend sponsorship that could justify the risk ahead of weekend illiquidity. That time is shrinking exponentially, and so is the availability of counter-trend sponsorship.
New lows are printing now at 2088.00, as the noon hour ends.
Friday morning biases tends to persist through the noon hour. Afternoon refers to the bias environment. That leaves 20-30 minutes to probe new lows and either bottom during 1:20-1:30, or to be recovering already back above a relevant level.
This afternoon”s 2092.75 bias-down signal is a relevant level. Recovering it in time would help to trap shorts. Already tested the 2087.25 bias-down target to within 3 ticks is a start.
Otherwise, it starts getting difficult to attract buyers, and it starts getting much easier to attract sellers.