S&P
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2122.50 | 2114.25 |
| …would target | 2128.25 | 2120.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2116.25 | 2108.25 |
| …would target | 21112.25 | 2103.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Is that that?
Exiting the bias environment back under its bias-down signal.
A main tenet to launching a substantial rally today was holding this morning”s 2113.50 bias-down signal. And it didn”t trigger.
Its bias-down target was probed overnight to within 1 tick. It was still being tested an hour after the open. And now the bias environment has begun lapsing from back under it.
But it didn”t trigger.
Lapsing from above 2113.50 would have been bullish. Triggering a clean no-bias would have been more bullish. But now, at least entering the noon hour back above 2113.50 would still be bullish.
Entering the noon hour under 2113.50 wouldn”t be bullish, but it wouldn”t be as bearish as if 2113.50”s bias-down signal had triggered earlier.
At this moment, a reversal down from 2117.25 has extended to touch its minimum objective at 2109.50. Back above 2112.75 would start to suggest sellers are done. But entering the noon hour above 2113.50 is the minimum requirement for any confidence that buyers are regaining traction. Not recovering could extend down through Friday morning.
Post-open review… Not always better late than never.
Consolidation around support finally bounces.
The overnight probe under the 2113.50 bias-down signal wasn”t repeated before the open. And the pre-open recovery back up to 2113.50 wasn”t extended.
2113.50 wasn”t even probed until after the open, and then only momentarily. The first hour”s 2111.00-2115.00 range was centered around 2113.50, narrowing through the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period..
Until…
With only seconds remaining, a surge began extending to 2117.50. A bias signal triggered, and it wasn”t bias-down. This is a late no-bias environment. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2120.75 bias-up signal is in-play.
2117.50 is the last relative overnight high, so this resistance may be only obligatory, i.e. temporary. Meanwhile, 2117.50 is the 3-minute high to a buy signal triggered above 2114.25, when initial sponsorship often fades. A fresh high would confirm momentum has reversed up.
Exiting the bias environment back under 2113.50 would be less bearish than having triggered bias-down earlier. But it wouldn”t be bullish.
Are buyers reserving their energy
Are buyers reserving their energy for the cash session? Last night”s plunge through the 2113.50 bias-down signal to its 2108.25 target has been recovered. But 2113.50 resistance has held multiple tests. Maintaining its recovery could produce a substantial intraday rally, with potential to new highs. Not maintaining its recovery through the open could lead to a multi-session pullback.
This could be a huge trade, in whichever direction it resolves. Details were reviewed during the pre-market Tour, recoded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcrmft
The First Trade… Last gasp of sellers?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s shallow gap up extended too late to gain traction. Its rejection from 2120.25 fell to 2111.25. Isolating the fresh lows to the noon hour reflected weak-handed sellers. In fact, the afternoon”s buyers gained traction for their efforts, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high and entering the final hour even higher. The cash session”s close tested 2117.50. The one caveat was the relatively narrow intraday range undermining the traction, and needing to hold above 2113.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Blipping-up to 2118.50 at the Globex open was the bounce”s peak. Trending back down touched 2113.50 before bouncing again to 2117.50 through Europe”s opens. Retracing that bounce found an air pocket under 2113.50 that plunged to 2108.50. Its reaction up to 2113.50 is now being retested.
If, then…
The traction gained by yesterday afternoon”s bounce can still be rewarded during this morning”s bias. It depends upon recovering back above relevant support through a relevant timing window. That”s where 2113.50 comes in, especially now that it has been probed below, and probed so substantially. The overnight low essentially held a test of this morning”s 2108.25 bias-down target. Avoiding its repeat, or at least dispensing with it quickly, should resume yesterday afternoon”s recovery in a giant proportion that is still targeting new highs. Otherwise, still testing yesterday”s lows — i.e. triggering bias-down — could shut the door to new highs until next week.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2115.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2110.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.