S&P
Fill in the blank: Buy on the rumor, _______.
Was it even rumored that Greece might avoid defaulting to IMF?
German press is reporting that the EU and ECB will extend aid to Greece without the IMF. This is particularly timely, since this seemingly rebuts the headlines that had triggered the drop from last Thursday”s opening high.
I wasn”t aware of any rumors to this effect, although price patterns continued to suggest that Grexit hasn”t yet come to a head. This morning”s rally up to 2115.00 had consolidated narrowly down to 2112.50 when the Grexit headline triggered a surge to 2119.25. That surge has been retraced entirely.
This afternoon”s 2116.25 bias-up signal didn”t trigger, which allows room back down to this afternoon”s 2109.50 bias-down signal. That was just attacked to within 2 ticks. Breaking under it through 1:30 would invalidate the no-bias range”s limitation.
Session-long rally update: The setup wasn”t optimal, but we”re tracking its template anyway. If this afternoon”s bias environment is the window that does not probe a prior high, then the final hour should resume the rally. Again, the setup isn”t optimal, so we may still consider sell signals when the afternoon”s bias environment has lapsed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 19 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Friday”s post-open fed survey is high-profile, but has no track record of influencing price action. The two fed speakers are much likelier both to inhibit price action prior to their comments, and then to react to the comments.
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
11:40 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:15 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2124.50 | 2116.25 |
| …would target | 2130.25 | 2122.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2117.75 | 2109.50 |
| …would target | 2112.50 | 2104.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Session-long premise.
Post-open surge extends through air pocket.
Opening at 2097.00-2098.50 surged up to 2102.75, before dipping to 2100.00. That was the lower-end of an air pocket we began discussing yesterday afternoon, which the FOMC reaction stopped short of touching.
It compensated for its delay.
A deeper dip to 2098.25 would have been optimal. But reacting down to 2100.00 launched another surge to 2105.75. Its reaction down held its 2103.50 pullback limit to launch yet another surge to 2109.00.
2111.00 was just touched, taking 1-minute and 3-mijnute RSIs overbought again to protect against a reaction down from gaining traction. But back under 2108.00 could still dip to 2103.50 or 2101.00 without reversing the trend down.
A couple of notes:
First, gapping up today above yesterday afternoon”s high rejected the dip into yesterday”s close. Yesterday afternoon”s high printed after the bias environment began lapsing, and a little earlier would have allowed today”s gap up to form a session-long rally. Nevertheless, we”re going to compare today”s price action to the session-long rally template. It would expect only each timing window to probe above the prior timing window”s high, with one exception — usually the noon hour.
Second, gapping up today above yesterday afternoon”s high also served by proxy to update WedEX to late-active bullish. Timely active would be more reliable, but the template for an upward bias Friday afternoon and Monday morning will be applied.
Thursday”s pre-market Tour recording didn”t
Thursday”s pre-market Tour recording didn”t want to cooperate, so its link is a little delayed… Let”s see if the same can be said for sellers. The overnight recovery extended to 2097.50 in reaction to 8:30”s econ reports, which tends to foreshadow the reaction to post-open reports. That increases the potential for triggering bias-up at 10:15. Meanwhile, this is a danger zone, having pushed back on its test Tuesday night, Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon. Finally working through this area should be rewarding… Here”s the recording”s link:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjztswz