S&P
Defensive posturing, or posing?
Morning range gives way into the noon hour.
Having maintained its recovery through 10:15, this morning”s 2090.75 bias-up signal held as support through the bias environment. At least, until its exit came within view 10-15 minutes earlier. Breaking lower then could be credible for extending.
It did break lower. And it was credible. The noon hour was greeted by a reversal pattern that had formed at 2086.50-2089.50. But it didn”t reverse, and broke lower to its 2084.25 minimum objective. Now that”s being probed down to 2081.00.
Is this extra dip just noon hour noise, defensive posturing ahead of the 2:00 FOMC statements? Back above 2087.00 would signal as much, despite oversold RSIs at the low.
Resuming this week”s recovery attempt may depend almost entirely on already probing above a prior high like 2086.00-2087.00 by 2:00 — or else recovering into the Q&A.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 18 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s calendar is busy, high-profile and with several items that have track records for influencing price action. More so, whichever direction the pre-open reports trigger a reaction tends to be duplicated by post-open reports.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2100.00 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2096.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2088.50 | 2080.00 |
| …would target | 2080.50 | 2072.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Anchors away.
Did opening range hold-up long enough to absorb selling?
Post-open action immediately attacked the 2090.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick before reversing up as quickly to 2095.25. Price action since then has trended back down.
Trending back down in a very narrow range can be only noise. In fact, the reaction down only attacked the 2090.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick through 10:15, triggering it. Only after becoming too late to invoke the grace period was it pierced.
And piercing under the 2090.75 bias-up signal has been short-lived. Its support held again at 10:30. This is a bias-up environment, targeting a retest of the 2096.50 overnight high, which is also this morning”s bias-up target.
Without a fresh high, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2090.75 bias-up signal could still invalidate its 10:15 trigger. Meanwhile, back above 2092.25 would signal momentum reversing up.
The pre-open dip from 2096.50
The pre-open dip from 2096.50 touched 2089.25 before bouncing to 2093. Recovering 2093.50 through 9:45 would be bullish, but holding its test through the first several minutes could have the exact opposite effect. So, we”ll implement a short-entry quickly if 2093.50 is touched, and a long-entry just above it. Don”t forget that trending will be difficult after awhile, as the afternoon”s FOMC events get nearer… Here”s more detail in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtmhpf