S&P
CORRECTION: The wrong link was
CORRECTION: The wrong link was sent previously. I apologize for any confusion that caused. Following is the correct pre-market Tour recording link:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxfxhx
The overnight plunge”s recovery from
The overnight plunge”s recovery from 2094 to 2110 was retraced to within 1 tick of this morning”s 2098.50 bias-down target. A bounce to 2106.50 has reacted down to threaten the bias-down target again. There”s not much time to absorb a post-open dip if the session intends on avoiding a deeper drop through the overnight lows. We discussed why, and reviewed preliminary numbers, during the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmbmrz
The First Trade… Big plunge touches our target.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s pre-open bounce became a post-open plunge, from 2115.00 down to 2100.25. Despite not yet fulfilling the morning”s 2098.50 bias-down target, another bounce fulfilled the afternoon”s 2118.00 bias-up target. Then a shallower plunge ended the day by testing 2109.00, with no unfinished business above, and the morning”s unmet bias-down target outstanding below.
Overnight action”s new info…
Significant overnight action leads me to publish today”s First Trade much earlier than usual… Flat-to-lower ranging overnight had twice held 2112.00 resistance. Price began weakening at Europe”s opens, eventually cascading down to 2094.00. I”m going to go out on a limb here… Greece headline? Yep, Greek voters pushing back on austerity plans. Anyway, the reaction up from 2094.00 consolidated at yesterday morning”s 2100.25 low, and is now climbing higher to 2103.50.
If, then…
Just touching 2112.00 Friday had made last Tuesday”s 2096.00 low likely to be probed by 2-3 points. Last night”s plunge to 2094.00 neutralizes that attraction. But if a rally doesn”t exploit this vulnerability early, then a much more substantial decline will be underway.
First Trade…
Exiting the open above 2108.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2106.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2101.50 would be likely to recover the 2098.50 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2093.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2098.50 bias-down target, renewing the bias-down signal and putting 2078.75-2081.25 into play.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2120.00 | 2118.00 |
| …would target | 2126.25 | 2124.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2108.50 | 2106.50 |
| …would target | 2100.50 | 2098.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Monday was an easy day,
Monday was an easy day, and that is despite the morning”s plunge stopping short. The subsequent rally would not have been possible without the morning”s plunge at least neutralizing some attraction below, which it did, by probing under Friday”s “ineffectual optimism” lows. But that didn”t extend down to probe under last Tuesday”s 2096 low, and it left outstanding an interim objective at 2098.50.
Did Monday”s late drop to 2109 start the process of resuming the decline? It originated from the afternoon”s 2118 bias-up target (met to within 1 tick), so there is no unfinished business above.
But the late drop”s origin undermines its sponsorship, coming from above all prior intraday highs, after entering the final hour. The late drop fulfilled the 2115 signal”s selling pressure at its 2110 target. The target was still being overlapped as RSIs diverged positively. Also being overlapped — and not broken — was the afternoon rally”s earlier buy signal.
Greece headlines promise to be active overnight, based on news that was hitting after the close. Having trended down into Monday”s close, gapping Tuesday above Monday afternoon”s ~2118 high would form a session-long rally setup. Otherwise, one or two attractions below will be glad to make good use of the wait.
Here”s the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmbmrz
And the overnight chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/599-949-670
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh