S&P
The First Trade… So, now Grexit means nothing?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The sentiment of several dips during holiday trading bled into Tuesday”s open, which gapped down from 2124.25 and trended down sharply through the morning to 2100.25. Bouncing into the morning bias environment”s exit resolved down to new lows at 2096.00 as the afternoon bias environment”s exit. The final hour”s bounce to 2101.50 extended to 2107.00 into the Globex close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday”s post-close surge was clearly weak-handed. Backing-and-filling through Europe”s opens didn”t find a bid until testing 2101.50, then surging to 2107.75. Not surprisingly, that bid came amid Grexit news. Surprisingly, this morning”s Grexit news is seemingly worse than what was scapegoated for yesterday”s opening slide.
If, then…
So, die by the Grexit, re-birth by the Grexit? As much as Greece exiting the Euro creeps inevitably closer, sell-offs on its fears have been temporary. The ugly Euro chart makes the news seem closer, but S&Ps will shrug it off again if a second consecutive lower close is avoided today. Regardless of this pre-open fiming amid worse Grexit news, S&Ps still must gap up and extend higher to avoid at least retesting yesterday”s low.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2108.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2106.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2101.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Here are today”s chaRTroom links
Here are today”s chaRTroom links (First Trade blog post is coming soon)…:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/542-632-592
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Looking for tonight”s chaRTroom links?
Looking for tonight”s chaRTroom links? Look down:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/509-204-687
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.00 | 2106.75 |
| …would target | 2115.25 | 2113.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.25 | 2098.00 |
| …would target | 2095.25 | 2093.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Does it feel like the
Does it feel like the drop into Tuesday afternoon”s low was hanging by a thread? That”s because it was. The timing wasn”t entirely inappropriate for ending the decline, but its 2096 low isn”t a calculably attractive spot for it.
Beginning the final hour”s rally aggressively would have been credible. But that was mostly reserved for the close — which is typically the weakest of hands, and not at all the strongest.
So, it”s more like sellers ere refueled, and less like buyers gained any traction.
Having said that, gapping up Wednesday and/or extending through Tuesday morning”s 2107-2108 bias environment high could reverse the trend back up. Regardless of how substantial it was, Tuesday”s drop was only one day and yet to be confirmed. Holding a retest of Tuesday”s 2096 low by 2-3 points could launch a recovery, too.
Otherwise, exiting the morning”s open at fresh lows, or at least not exiting the bias environment in rally mode, would suggest the bigger bearish pattern is unfolding… quickly.
Here”s the post-market Wrap recording for more detail (new chaRTroom links will be sent this evening):
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvhbfc