S&P
Daily Spot… Gold getting tired of its range?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday.and ranging sideways avoided confirming Monday”s break. It also corrected the dip from last week”s target. If Wednesday doesn”t accelerate Tuesday”s recovery attempt, then it”s probably because the decline has resumed
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A pre-open spike up from testing 1182.70 tested the range”s 1194.50 upper-end, which held as resistance Tuesday. It also created a new sell signal at 1187.00, whose break would be confirmed under 1182.70.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s bounce extended throughout 16.50-16.65 resistance, stopping just short of even beginning to signal that momentum was reversing up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday night”s retest of last week”s 153-00 low extended down to 151-16. RSIs diverged positively on its retest down to 151-04, launching a 3-point rally. RSIs diverged negatively while RSIs tested and retested 154-04 resistance. A pullback holding 153-08 could resume the rally, but it wouldn”t be very credible so quickly at this stage of the pattern.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Two days of testing the 58.65 pullback limit tried resolving up Tuesday morning, testing 60.65. Closing higher Wednesday would confirm a new rally leg underway with potential to 70.00.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s dip to 2.80 avoided dipping any lower into a pullback, and resolved by gapping up Tuesday and extending to fresh highs at 2.93. Closing above 2.95 would confirm the 3.06 prior high”s test is in-play. Back under 2.85 would offer one last chance for a pullback targeting 2.63-2.67.
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2106.50 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2112.25 | 2107.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2088.00 | 2083.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Back to square-one.
Yesterday”s late low being retested as resistance.
The pre-open probe above 2088.00 stopped short of touching 2091.25. So, pre-open buyers stopped short of trapping themselves. That”s not necessarily bullish, but it prevented buyer from being marginalized.
Back under 2088.00 triggered a drop that touched uptrending support from overnight lows at 2080.25. That”s where the selling ended, and when — with the opening 15 minutes of volatility, and not a moment later. It was as bearish as possible without gaining traction for its effort. Sellers weren”t marginalized.
A bounce back to 2088.00 repeatedly pierced under 2083.00, chipping away at its support without actually breaking lower. That effort ended with a surge to fresh session highs, testing the 2096.00 overnight lows.
Exiting the bias environment any higher would give the recovery traction, targeting 2100.00-2101.00 and potentially new highs. Exiting the bias environment back under 2088.00 would isolate the probe above 2091.25 and give the decline traction, targeting fresh session lows, and lower.
The overnight plunge attacked 2079
The overnight plunge attacked 2079 before reacting up meaningfully, to as high as 2086.50. That was retraced almost entirely before reacting up again, more meaningfully, testing and 2091.
It”s a good start, but a start to… what? Either to being in proximity for the open to recover 2091.25-2092.50, and then extending to 2100-2101… or, to refueling sellers from around 2088 for a post-open plunge. Essentially, either the market behaves immediately like it”s found value, or it gets disappointed. Here”s more detail in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmrccp
Gold and Bonds — Gently into the night, but not out of it.
One didn”t go gently into the night, and the other went a little too easily.
Gold and Bonds have had uneasy nights. Bonds much more so, as Gold only recently became volatile, and remains within a pre-defined range.
Gold has been challenging its 1182.70 sell signal. Its break would target a retest of the prior leg”s 1170.00-1174.00 target to 1161.50-1164.00, if not also extend to 1150.00-1154.00.
Yesterday”s test of 1182.70 was being overlapped into the close, which was under 1187.00, keeping it in-play. a $12-13 spike up 90 minutes ago has put the range”s 1194.50 resistance into play.
Recovering 1194.50 would only undermine the decline. A bottom would be signaled by closing above 1201.50. That said, not reversing back under 1187.00 this morning would at least begin to undermine the decline.
Bonds, meanwhile, had rallied last week from testing 153-10 back up to 157-00. That was obviously too much, too quickly, requiring at least a correction down to 154-30. Under 154-16 signaled that was extending into a retest of 153-10, potentially down to 152-20.
153-10 and 152-20 did not hold, and new lows overnight are testing 151-16.
That may seem excessive, and perhaps it is — if only for the near-term. But the decline”s traction remains intact so long as bounces hold 152-13, with potential down to 149-22. Back above 152-26/152-28 would signal a bigger bounce underway targeting 154-16.