S&P
Daily Spot… Long bond’s correction goes long
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down from last week”s 1.1380 target was extended Sunday night. Gapping down Monday to 1.1150 ranged sideways intraday, and closing lower Tuesday would confirm a new downleg in-play — if not also that the last upleg”s bubble was popping.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppy action initially held 1182.70 Sunday night, but Monday morning probed sharply lower intraday. It was recovered through the close, but not above 1187.00, so the greater vulnerability remains resuming the decline targeting fresh lows under 1170.00 down to 1150.00-1154.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
16.15 support wasn”t very threatened intraday Monday, and held through the close. It can still be probed by a dime before suggesting that a new downleg may be underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having gotten ahead of itself by bouncing so much so quickly from testing 153-10, there was likelihood for a pullback to at least 154-30. Monday probed it much more deeply to attack 154-00. Not recovering 154-30 Tuesday would make 153-10”s retest likely.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Despite last week”s pullback to the 58.65 limit ending in a Pivot Reversal, the setup did not immediately launch a rally Monday. The pullback limit did persist, but a temporary intraday dip probe under it can”t be discounted.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Abbreviating the corrective dip under 2.76 Friday in order to extend higher was then extended even higher to gap up Sunday night at 2.91. But Monday morning only ranged narrowly around Friday”s close, before dipping further into the afternoon — still vulnerable to correcting back down to 2.63-2.67.
Not taking yes for an answer.
Neutralizing the objective below hasn”t attracted sellers.
Holding the 2112.00 bias-up signal triggered no-bias. Its objective was an offsetting test of its 2104.25 bias-down signal. That has been fulfilled by attacking it to within 3 ticks.
That was awhile ago. So much time has elapsed since then without attracting buyers, And an attempt failed to exit the bias environment back above 2112.00 which would have invalidated 2104.25”s attraction altogether.
Back above 2108.00 (being touched now) and 2109.25 would signal a late rally underway, if only to test this afternoon”s 2112.75 bias-up signal. Meanwhile, fresh lows would remain possible, if not likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 12 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s JOLTS report follows Friday”s stunning reaction to the monothly Employmen Situation report. Its data can undermine the report by reflecting more strength, but probably not surprise it by reflecting any additional economic weakness.
Greece 750 million Euro payment due
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
9:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
John Williams Speaks — dove
12:45 PM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2118.00 | 2112.75 |
| …would target | 2123.25 | 2118.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2111.75 | 2106.75 |
| …would target | 2106.75 | 2101.50 |
| NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Climing a greased pole.
Post-open surge starts too low to cover its hurdle.
Friday”s buyers gained no traction for their efforts. So, extending higher this morning required immediately extending through Friday”s highs, if not actually gapping up to and through them.
But this morning”s 2110.00 opening print was under Friday”s 2111.00 cash session close. It did surge quickly, albeit not immediately, to pierce the 2112.00 bias-up signal. That was also a buy signal, but it was never exceeded higher than its first three minutes. Three times.
The first probe above 2112.00 reacted down to 2109.50, the second reacted down a little deeper, and the third probe up to 2113.50 reacted down to 2105.50.
That last reaction down came after the bias signal had invoked the grace period through 10:30. Having avoided bias-up, an offsetting test of the 2104.25 bias-down signal is in-play. Probing it down to 2101.50-2102.50 wouldn”t be surprising.
Currently, a bounce is attacking 2111.00. Back under 2108.50 would start to signal another downleg in-play, presumably to probe under overnight lows. Entering the noon hour above 2112.00 would instead suggest that sellers are marginalized for the day.