S&P
CORRECTION: This should be this
CORRECTION: This should be this morning”s new XP-friendly chaRTroom link:
http://anymeeting.com/593-392-794
(First Trade”s blog post link now has the correct link)
The First Trade.,, Keeping optimism well in-check.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
This morning”s chaRTroom links:
NOT xp-friendly (ilinc/Mitel)
XP-Friendly (Anymeeting)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s gap up to
2107.00 extended higher quickly. Already being above the morning”s 2103.00 bias-up signal, the open”s surge extended through its 2109.50 bias-up target. The 2114.75 renewed bias-up target was met before 10:15. Backing-and-filling through the noon hour held a retest of the 2107.00 open. But its reaction up to 2112.50 didn”t gain traction as the close dipped back to 2109.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Drifting lower to
2104.50 finally found support into Europe”s opens. But a surge to 2111.75 was soon retraced, and now 2104.50 is being attacked again.
If, then…
Having failed to gain traction yesterday, the rally can resume this morning by gapping up and/or extending quickly through yesterday morning”s high. So, with the open less than two hours away, currently probing under yesterday”s lows must start retracing back into positive territory soon. Waiting until post-open before probing fresh highs would not prevent extending higher this morning, but it would likely force an afternoon reversal down. Resuming the rally from lower lows testing Friday”s high is still possible, but more difficult.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above
2112.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2110.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2104.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and likely at least to test the 2103.50 bias-down signal.
The new alternative chaRTroom host
The new alternative chaRTroom host software keeps crashing, but not the client. We”ll try it again tomorrow if its support techs can resolve it. Meanwhile,
here”s a link to Anymeeting:
http://anymeeting.com/616-528-454
(And to ilin/Mitel if you”d rather:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjmwzh )
[Scroll down for links to
[Scroll down for links to the chaRTroom…]
Monday”s post-open ranging was sufficiently wide to catch several intraday reversal signals. And the signals had specific targets, enabling exits into them. But we”re still looking for wider intraday trending to develop soon.
One of the warning signs is compression, range bound action that doesn”t fail a trending attempt since it never tries. Monday”s internal inverted Head & Shoulders would qualify. It also qualified when the open”s high touched the recent “pivotal high,” i.e. the high prior to the actual high, which all but requires new highs.
But the trending session can”t start from within the prior day”s range. Monday”s buyers gained no traction for their effort, they were rewarded fully. So, extending higher Tuesday without delay should begin by gapping up, after trending up overnight. Similarly, gapping down Tuesday could trend down intraday, instead. More details are in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjmwzh
Links to the chaRTroom:
We”re testing a new solution Tuesday and Wednesday. One advantage over the current test subject is its static address (like ilinc) which will save you from awaiting login instructions every day. If it crashes while using it overnight, then we”ll switch back to Anymeeting in the morning.
New, XP-friendly: httpS://ithen.clickwebinar.com/if-then-chartroom
ilinc/Mitel: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2116.75 | 2110.75 |
| …would target | 2122.50 | 2116.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2109.50 | 2103.50 |
| …would target | 2104.00 | 2098.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.