S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 23, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Black Friday usually applies only to retail sales. And retail sales usually siphon volatility from the market. But low participation only inhibits the market from trending — it doesn’t prevent it, and it makes trending more difficult to stop if started. Meanwhile, only one econ report is scheduled before the early close. It’s post-open, and reliably influential to price action.
*PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
Early Close
1:15 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2659.75 | 2660.00 |
| …would target | 2669.25 | 2669.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2644.75 | 2645.00 |
| …would target | 2635.75 | 2636.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Rallying overnight up to 2667.00 was nonetheless contained entirely within Tuesday’s range. 
Wednesday’s session would go on to be an “inside day,” as well. Gapping up dipped immediately to within 2 ticks of the morning’s 2650.50 bias-up signal, then snapped back up to 2666.00. Its bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, but that didn’t prevent testing its renewed bias-up target up to 2671.25 as the morning bias environment began lapsing.
Not bad, from the earlier 2632.25 Globex low. Yet, all still an inside day. Lower lows through the close tested and held support at the 2647.75-2648.50 61.8% retracement between Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s gap up, natural support.
The afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal didn’t trigger, but it did serve as the afternoon’s support to a narrowing range. The proxy window finally cratered, extending down through the position-squaring window to retest the open’s attack on 2650.50. All still an inside day.
There’s nothing predictive about Wednesday’s price action. Less so about Friday, which closes early and is surrounded by days off. The chaRTroom will remain open — have a Happy Thanksgiving…
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s 1.1425 sell signal was retested as resistance overnight and into Wednesday’s open, and still being tested through the session by an inside day which neither confirms nor invalidates the signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight firming extended to fresh recovery highs Wednesday morning attacking 1231.00, but essentially hovering under Monday’s 1228.00 high. The 1220.50 sell signal remains active.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight firming extended to fresh recovery highs Wednesday morning at 14.55 to test another “higher prior low” and gap. A break back under 14.32 is now needed to reverse the trend back down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s fresh highs reacted down Wednesday morning to hover just under Monday’s 139-24 prior highs, without reversing momentum down or invalidating the upside momentum.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
It’s still too soon for any credible bottoming to develop when Tuesday’s plunge requires at least being probed to fresh lows. That didn’t prevent gapping up to retrace Tuesday’s late downleg from 54.30, back into Tuesday’s mid-day range, and then extending higher to test 55.85. But the inside day does not reverse momentum up.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending Tuesday’s recovery overnight tested the gap back to last Wednesday’s 4.83 close, but had backed off already pre-open to avoid filling the gap intraday. An intraday gap fill remains likely, especially so long as 4.38 holds as support through the close.
Mid-day Update… Holding up, still.
Still testing yesterday’s highs.
This morning’s 2661.00 bias-up target had held 3 tests through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Fresh highs were still likely to test what would have been its 2668.75 renewed bias-up signal. Which the bias environment exit did, up to 2671.25.
Similar to Fridays, the morning’s bias was likely to persist through the noon hour, ahead of tomorrow’s illiquidity. Reacting down into the noon hour only attacked this afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal before triggering no-bias. The window’s 2671.50 bias-up signal can be tested.
Back under 2662.00 would still be credible for reversing momentum down, especially when the bias environment begins lapsing. Otherwise, fresh highs would next target 2677.75.