S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday bounced before even touching Wednesday’s low, essentially forming an inside day. A fresh high would still contend with 1.1400 resistance, but retesting the 1.1245-1.1275 lows first could form a durable bottom.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s close was testing 1210.00 on its way up to 1217.00, which was retested overnight but not exceeded Thursday as price hovered just below it Resistance at 1219.00-1222.00 must hold to maintain this is only a temporary corrective bounce.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce extended overnight up to the 14.25 resistance of Friday’s gap down and previous “higher prior lows.” It was all retraced into the open, and then recovered intraday to probe another nickel higher. Resistance at 14.35 is likely to be tested, and likely to launch the next downleg if tested.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rising stocks didn’t need the destination of a flight-to-quality, so probing higher Thursday up to 139-14 was retraced into negative territory. The trend didn’t reverse down, but the opportunity to confirm Wednesday’s rally had failed.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s close didn’t maintain a shallow but favorable knee-jerk reaction to the one-day delayed EIA report, essentially ending the day at its 56.50 open and still being likely to probe under Monday’s 54.75-55.55 lows.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A probe above Wednesday’s 4.93 spike high was avoided before reversing down sharply to 3.93 Thursday. Which still confirms the exhaustive nature of the rally, but held above the 4.03 “lower prior high” to avoid reversing the trend down.
Mid-day Update… Bottom, or bounce?
Buyers leveraging the trapped shorts.
This morning’s bias-down signal triggered despite having been recovered from testing its bias-down target. 
So, the bias-down target’s retest was put into play, producing fresh lows down to 2671.25. And producing the opportunity for a second consecutive close under prior lows that would put into play the next lower objective.
That disappeared in a hurry. The bias environment lapsed just above its 2691.25 bias-down signal, isolating the interim probe under prior lows. Either it was another temporary corrective bounce, or else sellers were done.
It does seem that they were done.
Extending higher into the noon hour peaked at 2710.00 before dipping back down to 2691.50 (1 tick short of the morning’s bias-down signal). The afternoon’s 2695.50 bias-down signal’s test was recovered in time not only to avoid triggering it, but also in time to test the 2711.00 bias-up signal. Which triggered.
Its 2718.00 bias-up target is being exceeded up to what would have been the 2729.00 renewed bias-up target at 2729.00. This is the sort of pattern — failed attempt to confirm the downtrend — that can be rewarded by a relentless intraday rally. The 2760.00 area isn’t necessarily in-play, but its test wouldn’t be surprising so long as another drop doesn’t break back under 2711.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday morning’s Services report is low-profile and not reliable for influencing price action, although a surprise would. Meanwhile, the session’s other reports are also not high-profile or influential, but the late-morning Fed speaker could get a reaction.
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Quarterly Services Report (Advance)
10:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
11:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2709.75 | 2711.00 |
| …would target | 2706.75 | 2718.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2694.50 | 2695.50 |
| …would target | 2686.00 | 2687.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Too late to break?
Pre-open drop having trouble extending.
The open was greeted in scare-mode, having slid from 2710.00 to probe Wednesday’s low down to 2682.00 pre-open. Which was new sentiment for the overnight, since the only other aggressive overnight dip had held support, well above Wednesday’s low.
Late breaks from an overnight range are often false. Sometimes only so false as to retest the range before resuming the breakout, but often reversing back through the range in the opposite direction. Last night’s pattern qualifies as a range for being contained within yesterday’s late bounce, but it was a very wide range.
Anyway, the post-open bounce back into the range up to 2698.00 has been reversed back under yesterday’s low. That’s the original breakout direction, and not back up through the overnight range. The 2691.25 bias-down signal triggered. Its 2681.25 bias-down target was met already when the open blipped down to 2677.75.
The bias-down target can be retested. And fresh lows can be probed. But not already recovering into the bias environment lapsing would suggest that 2654.00 and 2635.00 are in-play, too.