S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
It might seem odd that Tuesday’s session shared a relevant feature to last Thursday and Friday, since Tuesday ranged choppily sideways, but Thursday and Friday trended down exclusively in negative territory. How are those similar? Because both sets expended a lot of selling pressure, without maintaining a break under a relevant support.
Thursday and Friday retraced much of its prior session’s (Wednesday) rally. Tuesday has retraced all of its prior session’s (Monday) range.
Of course, Thursday and Friday did resolve down through relevant support. Tuesday’s session may yet do the same, and for a similar reason — bottom-fishers aren’t comprised of strong-handed buyers, as seen by ending the period at or near the lows. The next lower objective is 2696.00 and then 2786.00. Gapping up above Tuesday afternoon’s 2740.50 high would start to signal momentum reversing up, instead.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday had fulfilled the minimum objective of Thursday’s confirmed breakout, creating vulnerability to a bounce, which developed overnight but not until probing fresh lows at 1.1245. Gapping up within Monday’s range was reversed back into Monday’s range after temporarily probing above it, which doesn’t reverse the trend up.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Post-close action Monday had tested the decline’s minimum 1201.50 target, whose break would next target 1172.50. Fresh lows Tuesday probed further under the signal and then held its test as resistance.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s fresh lows didn’t extend, certainly not at any aggressive pace, but the decline’s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap up was not extended overnight or Tuesday morning, which instead opened back down to the 138-04 buy signal that is awaiting a valid trigger. Recovering into the afternoon pierced positive territory sporadically, still likely to extend higher aggressively if extending higher at all.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A post-close slide to fresh lows Monday foreclosed upon the 61.00 buy signal that could have triggered after Monday’s intraday bounce. The slide became a plunge — the deepest in 3 years — down to 55.70 intraday, and continued sliding post-close.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending up to fresh highs overnight ignored Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” and its vulnerability to launching at least a corrective dip. The pattern of two breakouts interrupted by a non-confirmation often produces another non-confirmation Wednesday, which would be vulnerable to reversing down into the afternoon.
Mid-day Update… Early to bed, early to rise.
Downside target met already, again.
Holding a test of the morning’s 2738.50 bias-up signal, despite having traded to 2744.00, all rejected as price collapsed back down to overnight lows. 
Then all recovered, and more.
This morning’s low reversed up sharply from within 2 ticks and 2 minutes of fulfilling its 2720.00 objective. The open’s 2744.00 high was retraced within a half-hour. Fresh highs attacking 2756.00 within the next 20 minutes.
Is a similar setup developing? This afternoon’s low touched its 2727.75 bias-down target. Bias-down did trigger cleanly, but a reversal is already being attempted up to 2740.50. Anything above the 2735.50 bias-down signal is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced.
Extending higher could find sellers are done, and with no attractions outstanding below. Otherwise, back under 2731.50 would start to signal the bounce had failed, and once again open the door to another downleg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 14, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Similar to Tuesday which had no post-open econ reports and one Fed speaker, Wednesday has one post-open report which has no track record for influencing price action. The session’s one Fed speaker is also pre-open, and has a mixed record of influencing price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
CPI
8:30 AM ET
*Randal Quarles Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2750.75 | 2751.75 |
| …would target | 2757.00 | 2758.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2734.75 | 2735.50 |
| …would target | 2727.00 | 2727.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.