S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s gap up established a position of strength by the opening 15 minutes holding a test “lower prior highs” at 2707.00. That quickly resolved up during the morning bias environment to test the next relevant resistance at 2716.50-2724.00, the morning tested 2729.00. Pulling back to the open recovered to fresh session highs during the afternoon bias environment to test 2737.00.
Up 25 post-open. Up 52-54 points from Tuesday’s close. All of the post-open gain was retraced by a drop that originated at the proxy window exit, testing 2710.00 at the cash session close, and 2706.00 at the futures close.
Reversing down Thursday morning now requires gapping down to isolate Wednesday’s session. Otherwise, Wednesday’s highs are likely to be probed up to 2741.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of the longstanding 1.1394-1.1430 target area extended down without delay overnight. The second consecutive lower close confirms the breakout, and now requires at least an eventual third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending down overnight confirmed Tuesday’s break under the 1228.00 sell signal, which now requires at least an eventual third lower close.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped down under the rising channel’s lower-end, down to its last touch under 14.30. This sequence can repeat indefinitely and extend down again, although a second consecutive lower close would at least confirm the decline remains intact.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still no catalyst for a flight-to-safety Wednesday, allowing the pullback to continue back to 138-04. Its break would still essentially seal a top to the bounce, so holding it all but relies upon stocks reversing back down.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming in reaction to Wednesday’s EIA, the session ultimately only ranged narrowly around unchanged. Back above 67.95 would trigger a new upleg.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back up Wednesday extended higher intraday to test the 3.25 buy signal that Tuesday’s open had chipped away at. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Thin air.
Probing fresh session highs.
The close-quarters Double Top that had formed from testing 2729.25 ultimately reacted down 21 points to 2721.25 after entering the noon hour. Rallying straight up since then has extended to probe the morning’s highs up to 2732.00.
And now the current 2730.25 pullback limit is being violated.
Slightly exceeding the 2728.25 bias-up target at 1:20 was sufficient to renew the bias-up signal. Its next higher objective is 2733.00, and then 2741.00. Neither is required of a renewed signal. And reversing down has room to test the 2721.00 bias-up signal until the bias window starts lapsing.
Back under 2726.75 (being tested now) would have near-term potential down to 2721.00. The rally could resume from there, but back under 2715.25 would reverse momentum down — probably not just a little if broken soon after exiting the bias environment.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 1, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy. And high-profile. And its post-open reports are influential to price action. They’re likely to duplicate any reaction to the pre-open reports. The post-open reports look at industrial data, which is an opportunity for contradicting each other, or for confirming outliers.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2721.25 | 2721.00 |
| …would target | 2728.50 | 2728.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2710.25 | 2710.25 |
| …would target | 2699.00 | 2699.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.