S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2652.50 | 2652.00 |
| …would target | 2667.25 | 2667.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2633.75 | 2633.50 |
| …would target | 2621.00 | 2620.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s open was greeted by a significant overnight rally from Friday’s 2769.50 close, up to 2700.50. 
But Friday’s 2692.00 high was overlapped throughout the open to prevent isolating Friday’s session. This created a position of weakness — not to prevent probing higher, but to doom higher probes to failure.
The open eventually surged to a fresh high at 2707.00, and then soon began retracing. And reversing. Friday’s close was probed early in the noon hour, bouncing 16 points up to 2682.50. The afternoon’s bias environment was exited in decline, and in capitulation, falling 80 points to 2603.00. Oversold RSIs at the low require an eventual retest. Which could be as early as Tuesday morning since sellers gained traction Monday afternoon.
The last bounce limit was already being probed up to 2624.00 during its first 3 minutes. And that extended to 2643.00 at the close. Interestingly, the last bounce retraced 38.2% of the high-to-low collapse. Also interesting, the afternoon leg measured 61.8% of the high-to-low collapse. Which also means the last bounce retraced 61.8% of the afternoon leg, and could have ended the corrective bounce.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight into a gap up Monday didn’t extend higher intraday, but also consolidated above Friday’s close. Having fulfilled its longstanding downside objective last week, near-term choppiness remains likely.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down slightly Monday trended down to test the 1228.00 sell signal. It was still being overlapped at the close to avoid triggering, but any initial weakness Tuesday morning would be credible for extending lower.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s break under the 14.57 sell signal slid back down to the uptrending channel’s lower-end, coinciding at 14.40. Hesitation there seems almost obligatory — but isn’t, because that’s not a trendline or calculable feature, only structural. Nevertheless, any initial weakness Tuesday morning would be credible for extending lower.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing the 139-26 corrective bounce target Friday to within 1 tick was pierced Sunday night up to 139-29, but Monday dipped back down to “lower prior highs” at 138-28. Which doesn’t reverse momentum down, so rallying again before dipping any deeper could next target 140-26.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming overnight to a fresh high at 67.95 was again retraced to spend the session fluctuating around the 67.25 buy signal. The delay in triggering it does open the door to probing lower — if not also to resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday already produced the pattern’s fresh lows as had been likely. That didn’t prevent gapping down again Monday, once again within the prior lows. But this is that setup’s second time, so despite not requiring a retest, Monday’s lows are likely to be probed. And probing fresh lows would be vulnerable to trending down intraday.
Mid-day Update… Watching that next step.
Noon hour range hangs on to the lows.
The bias environment’s reversal down from 2707.00 had extended to 2682.50 before the bias environment began lapsing. A bounce resolved down to enter the noon hour even lower at 2679.00. And the noon hour extended down to 2666.00.
A lot of selling pressure, and almost all developed in positive territory. This afternoon’s 2679.00 bias-down signal triggered late AFTER having fulfilled its 2669.75 bias-down target. Twice. Its retest isn’t required, and it won’t become “unfinished business” if not retested. But it’s still an attraction during the bias-down environment.
Back above 2684.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up. I would expect it to behave like a short-squeeze relief rally IF it catches at all. Relief from what? Relief from the bias-down environment not extending down through the afternoon, which it’s free to start doing.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is relatively busy, but has only one high-profile econ report that is reliably influential to price action. It is the post-open Consumer Confidence, and it’s likely to duplicate any noticeable reaction to either of the two pre-open reports.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET