S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday from Wednesday’s fresh lows was reversed back under Wednesday’s lows and dip deeper into the 1.1395-1.1430 target area.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing back up to 1241.00 resistance overnight was retraced to gap up Thursday only within Wednesday’s 1229.50-1236.00 range. Remaining within Wednesday’s range now allows breaking under 1228.00 to signal momentum reversing down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
14.80 was tested again overnight, and only touched, before gapping up Thursday within Wednesday’s range. The balance of the morning trended back down under Wednesday’s lows to attack 14.60, whose break would signal momentum reversing down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Correlation to recent stock market gyrations have established the upside potential depends upon being a destination during flights-to-safety, which wasn’t needed Thursday morning, so price only fluctuated narrowly around the 138-18 buy signal.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Recovering from Wednesday’s reaction back down under 67.25 didn’t was recovered by Thursday’s open, but only to fluctuate narrowly around 67.25 intraday. Its test up to 67.72 Wednesday would now trigger the buy signal.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s choppy inside day gapped up before retracing back to Wednesday’s close. The open’s high was briefly probed, but also reacted down. Fresh lows for the pattern remain likely.
Mid-day Update… False bravado.
Bias-down rally underway.
This afternoon’s bias-down triggered under 2699.25. Its 2691.00 target was met already to within 3 ticks during the noon hour. It’s still an objective, but won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding.
Fresh lows through the bottom of the hour would have reinforced the bias-down. Back above the 2699.25 bias-up signal through the bottom of the hour would have invalidated the bias-down. Neither happened.
Regardless, this pattern has potential for a bias-down rally anyway. Which seems to be developing, now probing fresh session highs up to 2708.00. Trending above the bias-down signal during a bias-down environment is sponsored by weak hands, and doomed to failure.
The bias-down rally’s objective remains 2715.50, and the likely resolution is the same as at this morning’s test of 2695.00-2697.00 — to reverse back down. Retesting 2699.25 and then extending higher would no longer be sponsored by weak hands.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: REMINDER: I’m away from the screens all morning Friday, after recording the Market Tour — back in the afternoon… Meanwhile, Friday’s pre-open GDP is only high-profile, but any noticeable reaction to its report is likely to be duplicated by the post-open Consumer Sentiment.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2709.00 | 2709.00 |
| …would target | 2718.00 | 2718.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2699.00 | 2699.25 |
| …would target | 2690.75 | 2691.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dragging it up just to drag it out.
Post-open rally neutralizes higher resistance.
The overnight rally to 2692.25 was retraced ultimately to 2673.00. 
It’s pre-open bounce greeted the open at this morning’s 2679.25 bias-up target, and then dipped again to 2667.75.
And the low was in.
Just having absorbed the pre-open dip had suggested already the overnight high would be probed up to 2695.00-2697.00. Their test reacted down to 2683.00, and is bouncing again. Just exceeding the 2695.00-2697.00 target suggests the next higher objective is 2715.50. Price is now trying to saw its way through to 2700.00.
Or, else, the high is in.
RSIs are diverging negatively. The sawing is still overlapping 2695.00-2697.00, and not yet trending above it. Back under 2688.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. The 2679.25 and 2671.00 bias-up parameters would be likely objectives until the bias environment begins lapsing to allow even lower.