S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2919.75 | 2924.50 |
| …would target | 2926.00 | 2930.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2912.25 | 2917.00 |
| …would target | 2906.25 | 2911.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s rally missed the opportunity to complete a retest of Wednesday’s 2907.50 low. The overnight attack on it to within 2 ticks also missed the opportunity. None of which is predictive, not without the actual attempt to break lower. Its failure creates a consequence… and that’s what the methodology is all about.
So, this morning’s consequence was an offsetting test of the 2924.50 bias-up signal, for having held a test of the 2916.25 bias-down signal. Done. Its morning test marked the session high. And being a Friday, the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways as was most likely.
Meanwhile, the close (barely) recovered 2919.00. That’s a different pattern, but the consequence should be to retest the prior Friday’s highs. And there would have been consequences to not recovering it, and/or to closing under 2914.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THE SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s breakout from a 5-day multi-session range under 1.1815 down to 1.1725 gapped down sharply to 1.1645 Friday. The presumed second consecutive lower close would confirm the breakout, and require at least an eventual third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight attacking 1184.00 were retraced well into positive territory Friday morning up to 1195.00, which is now the decline’s bounce limit — testing it up to 1198.00. Holding its test as resistance would be optimal for keeping intact the 1172.50 target.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The disparate performance from Gold became more glaring Friday as the open gapped back up to Wednesday’s 14.40 close instead of confirming Thursday’s break under 14.33. Surging through the morning up to 14.75, just a nickel below its objective. .
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up a quarter-point to test 141-00 Friday was reversed down to probe a quarter-point into negative territory, still having potential for extending the corrective bounce up to 141-16 or 142-00 so long as 140-10 now holds as support.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Four days of hovering under Monday’s 72.70 high resolved up Friday to attack 73.75, nearing the 73.90-74.25 target that remains intact so long as 70.80 holds as support.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, and reacting up to new highs fulfilling the 3.10 target, a pullback had room down to 3.00. Having failed to close above 3.10 after testing it, upside momentum became vulnerable and Friday’s open gapped down to test 3.00. Closing any lower would signal the uptrend had ended.
Mid-day Update… Try (fail), try (fail) again.
Sellers take another shot, and miss again.
This morning’s opportunity to trend down was not exploited, as I described in the post-open review. Being a 
Friday, with participation thinning out sooner than during other sessions, there’s usually only one chance for sponsorship.
A trending attempt isn’t required at all, and patient, strong-handed sponsorship wouldn’t start a fight it couldn’t win. So, a failed attempt reflects impatient, weak-handed sponsorship. Other sessions might see strong-handed sponsorship try later, but rarely on a Friday.
So, this morning’s sellers ultimately failed to trigger the 2916.25 bias-down signal. An offsetting test of its 2924.50 bias-up signal was fulfilled by 1 point at the morning’s high.
Now another opportunity for sellers to gain traction has presented itself. And sellers have again failed to exploit it. Already testing a sell signal at 2921.25, the FB headline triggered a 7-point plunge to 2915.50. The pattern’s bounce limit was violated, and this afternoon’s 2919.00 bias-down signal wasn’t triggered.
Opportunity missed. Knee-jerk reactions to news are the product of weak hands, anyway. And the headline’s origin is now retraced up to 2923.50. The no-bias environment could extend up to its 2926.00 bias-up signal, or dip to its 2913.50 bias-down signal. Either could break after the bias environment lapses — and trend up if the lapsing probes above the morning’s 2925.50 high, or down under 2919.00.
Meanwhile, closing under 2919.00 and 2914.00 would start to contradict the bottoming pattern we’ve been tracking. So, further downside today is less likely, or likely to be recovered.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 1, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar hasn’t been busy for awhile, and suddenly it’s going to be very busy. The pre-open Fed speaker might trigger a reaction, but the three post-open reports are a combination of high-profile and reliably influential to price action. They’re also the first last-looks at data that might either justify or question Wednesday’s FOMC rate hike.
Raphael Bostic Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
12:15 PM ET