S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
As of 3:35pm ET
The Isolation setup’s minimum objective, or reward, is to retrace the last leg’s origin. Which would be a new high for the setup that formed through Tuesday’s open. Tuesday’s open at or above 2897.00, which already exited the afternoon bias environment probing 2 ticks above last week’s 2917.25 “new Globex trend extreme.”
So, that’s done.
Meanwhile, another setup formed by exiting the open above Monday afternoon’s last relative high at 2903.00. Which made up by proxy for Monday’s close not recovering 2897.00. The setup has no particular objective or reward, only the indication of the pullback having ended. So, Tuesday’s retest of Friday’s highs should extend, and not form a top.
Not necessarily in a straight line. Thinner volume during Wednesday’s Yom Kippur holiday will inhibit extending the trend, while a pullback could easily dip to 2903.00 alone as noise. Thinning volume can also make it difficult to stop price that extends higher anyway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s upward biased inside day reflects “ineffectual optimism.” Tuesday’s probe of fresh highs above 1.1800 must close back under Monday’s 1.1750 low to confirm, and back under 1.1720 would still signal the trend reversing down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still fluctuating between 1201.50-1209.50 Tuesday has failed to break either way which would signal the next leg’s direction.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still hovering under the 14.33 buy signal without extending down is not a position of strength, and the pattern remains vulnerable to extending down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down to 141-08 under all prior lows wanted to be retested from above, which became possible after having bounced into Friday’s range. That had filled the gap back to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction and recovery potential. In fact, Tuesday gapped down to and through 141-08 on the way to fresh lows at 140-23.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up to the 69.50 buy signal instead of only probing it intraday from below was no better at extending through it. Tuesday’s high only filled the gap back to the week-old 70.35 high close by a nickel, one of the last two semblances of upside attractions. The second is the prior night’s 71.40 high, which also doesn’t otherwise require a retest. Now closing under 68.35 would signal momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to the adjusted 2.83 buy signal Friday extended higher through 2.87, filling a 3-week old gap up to 2.92. Closing higher Wednesday would help to confirm that momentum had reversed up.
Mid-day Update… Been here, done that (differently).
PROGRAMMING NOTE: MARKET WRAP IS EARLY TODAY AT 3:21 ET.
This morning’s 2912.25 renewed bias-up target wasn’t triggered at 10:15, which had only held a test of the 2907.50 bias-up target. But 2907.50 was exceeded quickly, and it was still a bias-up environment. And 2912.25 was met as the bias environment started lapsing.
The rally extended into a noon surge that touched 2916.25. Coming within 3 ticks of last Friday’s pre-open “new Globex trend extreme” doesn’t neutralize its unfinished business,being a structural point and not calculable. The premature hesitation does reflect pessimism, or at least restrained optimism, in either case bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias, holding a test of its 2915.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the window under 2911.25 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway, perhaps only to test 2907.00. Rallying would likely probe 2920.00. Neither is very reliable with volume thinning ahead of Yom Kippur’s observance.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Another day without high-profile or influential econ reports. And all reports are pre-open. Even before that is the BOJ monetary policy statement coming overnight. But the close may trigger my Wednesday Expiration (WedEX) setup.
Bank of Japan policy statement
overnight
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
WedEX
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2909.00 | 2915.25 |
| …would target | 2914.50 | 2920.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2901.75 | 2908.00 |
| …would target | 2896.75 | 2903.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.