S&P
Post-open Review… Lackluster selling.
Choppy open holds support, sort of.
No specific resolution is required from this morning’s opening behavior. Not for lack of trying to trigger a signal, but none was tested when it would have been predictive.
Another fresh low before the open had tested 2835.50. Its test through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have indicated the 2836.75 bias-down signal was likely or unlikely to trigger 30 minutes later. But it was only tested pre-open.
And the 2836.75 bias-down signal wasn’t tested post-open until coming within 3 minutes of the 10:15 signal to invoke the grace period. Still testing it at 10:30 triggered noN-bias, so this morning has no bias requirement. A bias target isn’t in-play, no offsetting test of the other bias signal is required, and neither bias signal is required to hold its test.
In other words, there’s no objective or influence this morning.
Back under 2835.75 would be credible for dipping anyway, probably to test the 2830.50 bias-down target. Currently, that’s being avoided by surging up to 2841.00, and any higher could extend to or toward the 2848.50 bias-up signal — but not as a required offsetting test of the bias-down signal, because its test wasn’t rejected in time to be predictive.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Holding pattern.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up 15 points 2835.00 near overnight highs Thursday extended higher into the noon hour to attack 2852.00. That expended 6-7 points more of energy than the likelier potential peak, so the subsequent reaction down encompassed the entire afternoon. The dip only reached 2838.50 in all of that time, in line wither being only a correction. A very last-minute surge through the close attacked 2846.00, where the morning’s rally had been likelier to begin correcting instead of adding the extra 6-7 points.
Overnight action’s new info…
No trending overnight, no fresh highs, and no significant gap open indicated. A bounce to 2849.00 was consolidated back down to 2843.00, even through Europe’s opens. More recently, a slide to fresh lows pierced yesterday’s late low by 3 ticks down to 2837.75. Its reaction is now testing the overnight range’s 2843.00 lower-end.
If, then…
Even without its last-minute surge, Thursday morning’s rally was only retraced and not reversed. But buyers didn’t gain traction for the morning’s effort. So, trending higher this morning would be likely by gapping up above yesterday’s afternoon’s 2849.50 high, which overnight action only attacked. Extending its reaction down under yesterday afternoon’s lows still has room down to 2835.50 before suggesting a deeper dip underway to 2826.00. Being a Friday — expiration, no less — the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2844.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2848.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2838.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2836.75 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2847.75 | 2848.50 |
| …would target | 2855.25 | 2856.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2835.75 | 2836.75 |
| …would target | 2829.50 | 2830.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday morning’s rally was likely to test 2841.00, potentially extend to 2846.00, and then probably correct. The rally tested 2846.00, extended to 2852.00, and then corrected. Perhaps the morning’s extra upside is responsible for a lack of afternoon buyers to resume the rally. Its correction down to 2838.50 was rejected by a last-minute surge through the close attacking 2846.00.
Even without the last-minute surge, Thursday’s prevailing uptrend wasn’t reversed by the afternoon’s downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. Neither did it resume. And buyers didn’t gain traction for the morning’s effort, since neither the bias environment exit nor the final hour’s entry recovered a prior high. So, trending higher without delay Friday all but requires gapping up, optimally above the afternoon’s 2849.50 high.
Thursday afternoon’s sellers also didn’t gain traction for their effort, since exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low was never confirmed by another window. But positive territory puts the burden of proof on buyers, so Friday morning (if not already overnight) could extend Thursday afternoon’s decline. Under 2835.50 could test 2826.00 before being unlikely to recover.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having neutralized the open’s gap down before closing positive Wednesday, the recovery attempt was free to extend at anytime Thursday. Overnight action did probe above the 1.1385 buy signal, which intraday action still tested as support.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 4-day sequence through Wednesday’s third day had indicated Thursday would likely close positive. The $18 overnight drop to 1167.00 benefited most from the influence, essentially forcing a recovery back above Wednesday’s 1185.00 close. The sequence can repeat indefinitely, so the trend reversal signal remains at 1194.70.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A slightly lower low overnight testing 14.32 was easily recovered to gap up Thursday and extend to 14.80. At least a dip down to 14.45 is likely before a more durable rally can begin. That said, an attraction down to the low can be delayed by a bigger bounce anyway, just not by a reliable bounce.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Resolving the two-day consolidation under Friday’s high to finally probe higher Wednesday was never extended overnight. Thursday’s open back under Friday’s high was extended back into the interim range, still not signaling a resolution either way.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging flat-to-higher Thursday stopped short of attacking the 66.10 buy signal, meanwhile leaving the decline vulnerable to extending down.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness enabled a negative knee-jerk reaction to the news that took price into negative territory. Another lower low has room down to 2.85 while still being able to recover.