S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline resumed Tuesday after Monday’s weak bounce had consolidated Thursday night’s crash into the weekend. The pattern offers no buy signal, and any aggressively higher open would be likely to reverse back down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce held a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s post-open drop. Resuming the decline without first bouncing any higher would suggest a low is near. Meanwhile, avoiding a second consecutive lower close has avoided confirming Monday’s breakout.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce held a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s post-open drop. Resuming the decline without first bouncing any higher would suggest a low is near. Meanwhile, avoiding a second consecutive lower close has avoided confirming Monday’s breakout.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Tuesday remained within Friday’s range, still not extending the rally, but also not rejecting it. At least a probe of fresh highs is likely, if not resuming the rally. A deeper dip has room down to 143-12 before signaling the trend is reversing back down.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Opening Tuesday above 67.65-67.90 would have triggered a buy signal if maintained through the close. But post-open action almost immediately began reversing down, and probed negative territory down to the 66.75 sell signal. Breaking either way would be credible for trending in that direction. Wednesday’s EIA is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No pullback followed several days of consolidating narrowly in the target range that was met last week, before probing slightly higher Tuesday. That qualifies as a breakout, but no consecutive higher close Wednesday would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Standing pat.
Still hovering just under yesterday morning’s high.
This morning’s rally from 2827.00 to 2842.00 hasn’t really advanced since then. Flat-to-higher ranging briefly touched 2843.00, but also failed to trigger this afternoon’s 2841.00 bias-up signal.
The rally also hasn’t reversed down. It’s free to do so, at any time. NOT yet reversing down during the bias environment, or at least dipping to its lower-end, would become likelier to break higher as the bias environment lapses. Any fresh high at any time could still be a false break, and a retest of the morning lows is entirely possible.
Only entering the final hour above yesterday’s ~2844.00 high would be credible for avoiding another downleg before the close. Just closing above 2833.50 would keep alive yesterday’s Isolation setup, but closing above yesterday morning’s high would be optimal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 15, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s calendar is unusual for its busiest day not being Thursday, but Wednesday. The staggered drip of econ reports has 2-3 that may be high-profile, but none has a track record for influencing price action. Retail Sales may be an exception, but only if its data surprise. Meanwhile, this is expiration week, so we may have a WedEX signal at the close.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Wednesday Expiration signal
3:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2840.75 | 2841.00 |
| …would target | 2846.50 | 2846.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2835.00 | 2835.50 |
| …would target | 2829.25 | 2829.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… They’re taking another shot at it.
Buyers ultimately hold the open.
The potential for gapping up above yesterday afternoon’s 2833.50 high had evaporated well before the open. 
Along with it went the potential for triggering a session-long rally. Extending higher is still possible, perhaps even throughout the session. But it’s not a requirement.
The 2830.50 bias-up signal ultimately triggered late. Its 2836.00 bias-up target had not been met, and quickly attracted price up to and through it. Unfinished business above was outstanding at yesterday morning’s 2840.75 bias-up signal, which broke lower during its bias-up environment. That was just probed up to 2842.00.
Recovering yesterday morning’s ~2844.00 high through the close wold break free from downside attractions, and confirm the Isolation setup is reinstated and targeting a retest of last week’s highs.
A lot of buying pressure has been expended already . More so, it has been expended aggressively by the steep and substantial 15-point rally off of the post-open 2826.75 low. And still yesterday morning’s high hasn’t been touched. Back under 2838.25 would start to signal this morning’s rally had failed, which remains a risk since the open already failed to exploit its opportunity to trigger a session-long rally.