S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 14, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Tuesday’s econ reports is high-profile, or has any track record for influencing price action. A surprise from any one of them is unlikely, and unlikely to affect the market.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2833.50 | 2833.75 |
| …would target | 2838.75 | 2839.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2825.75 | 2826.00 |
| …would target | 2820.25 | 2820.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Isolated.
Overnight sell-off disappears before the open.
Already recovering retracing before Monday’s open, the probe under Friday’s lows was isolated to the overnight. Just holding the opening 15 minutes above Friday afternoon’s 2826.00 lows would have sufficed. But holding above the morning’s 2828.00 low was optimal. Fulfilling the setup would target a retest of last week’s 2863.50 highs.
The 2840.75 bias-up signal triggered, too. Its likelihood had been indicated by recovering 2837.00 after the first post-open dip’s recovery ignored RSIs diverging negatively. Extending higher anyway usually means that sellers are marginalized for the window — if not also for the day.
2844.00 has been attacked. A pullback could develop, but its depth and durability would be doubtful, unless the noon hour were entered back under 2837.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another hit, another low?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Last week’s relatively narrow 3-day range had been entered by gapping up. It resolved similarly, gapping down 16-17 points into Friday’s 2837.00 open. The morning’s 2832.00-2843.00 range exited the bias environment on its highs, then fell relentlessly through the afternoon bias environment to 2826.00 on no-bias trending. Its required retracement helped to recover the probe under the morning’s lows, as a steep bounce out of the proxy window retraced 61.8% up to 2838.00-2840.00 through the close. But not 100%, as the session’s interim high was not recovered.
Overnight action’s new info…
Renewed roiling of the Turkish Lira helped Sunday night’s open collapse down to 2828.25. It was soon extended to Friday’s lows, and down to 2820.25 through midnight. Its reaction back into Friday’s range touched 2831.75 before dipping again. Now that dip’s higher low has also recovered back into Friday’s range.
If, then…
Recovering the probe under Friday morning’s low had robbed sellers of their traction, but remained vulnerable to retest because momentum hadn’t reversed up above the morning’s 2841.00-2843.00. Its recovery would no longer suffice for reversing the trend up, which now requires closing above 2847.00. Fresh lows overnight don’t seem interested in a recovery, but repeatedly bouncing back above Friday’s lows does lay groundwork for a bullish Isolation setup. Preferably exiting the open above Friday morning’s low would target a retest of last week’s 2863.50 highs. Otherwise, not exploiting the setup could resolve as bearishly as it would have been bullish. More so, having already neutralized Friday morning’s attraction back down to its oversold RSIs, closing lower today anyway would be fresh bearish sponsorship.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2834.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2831.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2828.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2840.25 | 2840.75 |
| …would target | 2847.25 | 2847.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2831.25 | 2831.75 |
| …would target | 2824.75 | 2825.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.