S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday from Monday’s new low duplicated the same reversal setup as at the range’s 2-3 prior lows. Extending the reversal becomes less likely with each occurrence, as Tuesday’s post-open dip from 1.1645 resistance wasn’t yet deep enough to signal momentum reversing down. But not immediately extending higher does undermine even a corrective bounce.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s open gapped up to 1222.50 resistance, essentially filling the gap back up to Friday’s close. Monday’s 1216.00 opening gap should be filled before any credible recovery, and the trend meanwhile remains down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping overnight to attack the 3-week old opening gap down at 15.25 was recovered into Tuesday’s open, once again failing to complete the outstanding test intraday. The open filled the gap outstanding from Friday’s 15.47 close, allowing a very bearish reaction down Wednesday. Not already exploiting that opportunity at the open would make a bigger bounce likely.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s opening surge above the 143-02 buy signal had been suspiciously slow to develop. Drifting back down overnight increased suspicions, which were confirmed by drifting even lower intraday to attack the 142-18 sell signal.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already rallying overnight out of Monday’s pullback limit test only attacked Monday’s high, and formed only an inside day. But the 68.85 pullback limit held again as support, which is still likely to probe the 70.45 upper-end of last week’s Island, presumably on the way to fulfilling the 71.75 corrective bounce target.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s recovery from gapping down and probing lower at its open already confirmed what Friday’s break above 2.83 had signaled. Gapping up and trending higher Tuesday to 2.90 confirms 2.93-2.95 remains in-play.
Mid-day Update… Highwire act.
Hovering just under this morning’s highs.
Surging at the open, and after its reaction, had extended up to 2863.75 soon after the first hour. An errant tick above the 2861.75 bias-up target was the high, and pushed price back down to 2858.00 as the bias environment began lapsing.
That range has defined price action since then. The half-hour leading into the noon hour, the noon hour, and now potentially the afternoon bias environment. No trending, just ranging.
Even the most bullish scenario doesn’t require extending up today, or prevent a deeper pullback. Back under 2859.50 would suggest a deeper pullback underway. Meanwhile, extending higher would be difficult during the no-bias environment, whose 2863.25 has held its test.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 8, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled Wednesday besides the otherwise non-influential mortgage apps. But the pre-open Fed speaker is the first Fed speaker in a couple of weeks, and the first since last week’s FOMC policy statement. The 10-year note auction comes at an interesting point in the bond market’s chart.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Tom Barkin Speaks
8:45 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2863.25 | 2863.25 |
| …would target | 2869.50 | 2869.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2856.50 | 2856.75 |
| …would target | 2850.75 | 2851.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And even higher.
Gap up maintained, extended.
Gapping up above 2854.25 — and preferably to or around 2856.00 — would exceed the room for noise above yesterday afternoon’s range. 
Which would create a position of strength. Dipping into yesterday afternoon’s range would still be possible, but likely to recover.
No dip.
Opening at or around 2856.00 surged to 2860.00 and back down to 2856.00. The open only threatened to reverse down, and only momentarily. Rallying through the first hour has extended up to 2863.75, probing the bias-up target by 2 points.
Now the bias-up target’s minimum buying pressure is fulfilled. And the 2-point probe above it includes an errant tick that wasn’t immediately confirmed. Extending higher is possible, but not required. A reaction down has room down to 2859.25 before suggesting a deeper pullback is underway. Extending higher would essentially next target 2873.00.