S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s jobs openings report is the essentially the session’s only relevant report. It already has a track record for influencing price action, which its solo appearance can magnify.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2848.00 | 2848.00 |
| …would target | 2854.25 | 2854.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2841.00 | 2841.00 |
| …would target | 2834.25 | 2834.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Pessimism is alive and well.
Overnight and post-open dips absorbed.
Rejecting the overnight probe above Friday’s high would have signaled the trend reversing down through this morning. 
Or else through tomorrow morning. Reversing down from 2845.00 to 2835.00 had threatened exactly that.
I described during the Market Tour the 8-point surge that relieved the threat. But the threat re-emerged by greeting the open back under the 2840.00 earlier overnight low.
The open’s dip to 2835.50 was recovered anyway — not optimally, not back above 2840.00 at 9:45, but on its way. The 2841.00 bias-up signal triggered cleanly at 10:15 on the way up to 2843.50.
Another dip down to 2839.00 was still overlapping the 2841.00 bias-up signal at 10:30 to avoid invalidating it. It’s still being tested, but bias-up remains intact. More so, failing to trigger the open’s fully-formed reversal setup can resolve as bullishly as it would have been bearish.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Conflicting overnight efforts.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted at Thursday’s 2828.50-2831.00 highs. A China trade war headline was still being absorbed, so price only fluctuated there into and out of the open. The morning attacked the 2836.00 overnight high temporarily, dipping back down into the open’s range — but never reversing lower. Recovering through the noon hour extended higher through the balance of the session. Both the morning and afternoon’s 2837.50 and 2838.50 bias-up targets were met by a surge into the position-squaring window. Last-minute action extended up to 2840.50. No new unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped up to 2843.00, then drifted back down 3 points. Fresh highs up to 2845.00 before midnight then drifted back down 3 points, too. And then another 3 points back to the first 3-point reaction’s low. And then another 5 points down to Friday morning’s 2835.00 high. Volatility has only expanded during the past two hours, which surged 8 points to 2843.00 — back above Friday’s highs, for now.
If, then…
Friday’s close retraced the prior week’s 2838.25-2842.25 high close. This confirms the interim dip was only a temporary correction. Consequently, that also confirms the outstanding unfinished business above, requiring an eventual third higher close. Friday’s close at the prior week’s high close doesn’t qualify. So, the question is whether today will fulfill it. The earlier overnight lows were threatened AFTER probing above the prior session’s highs, which would reverse the trend down through this morning, at least. Maintaining its recovery would keep the door open to extending the rally without delay.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2843.00 would be likely to trigger the 2841.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2838.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2841.00 | 2841.00 |
| …would target | 2846.00 | 2846.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2832.00 | 2832.50 |
| …would target | 2825.50 | 2826.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS INTRO VIDEO | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.