S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s drop extended down overnight to gap down Friday. Reacting up into positive territory ranged narrowly sideways. The pattern won’t create a new buy signal until after Monday morning.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending Thursday’s drop overnight attacked the prior week’s 1215.00 gap open low. Friday’s gap down bounced to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s close, which held as resistance. The lower attraction remains intact.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
15.40 support was retested again Friday, and held again, although chipping away at support for so long without launching an upleg makes the prior week’s low likely to be tested.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s retest of Tuesday’s 142-21 low was pierced by several ticks in reaction to Friday’s GDP. The low held, but only to range sideways forming an otherwise inside day. The resemblance to stability is misleading, since the burden of proof at this stage is for a rally to establish itself. The decline’s momentum meanwhile remains intact.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Regardless of its degree, Friday’s slide back down to 68.25 comes too late to invalidate Thursday’s confirmation of Wednesday’s breakout from a multi-session range. At least an eventual third higher close is required, potentially up to 71.75.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap up is too aggressive at this stage to qualify as launching a new upleg. Closing back under 2.75 would target a retest of the lows.
Mid-day Update… Sooo close.
Pessimism is alive and well.
R
etesting this morning’s 2839.00 GDP reaction didn’t hold. Bias-down didn’t trigger, but its 2829.50 bias-down target was attacked to within 2-3 ticks at the bias environment low. The noon hour steepened the drop and extended it much, much more sharply.
Breaking under this afternoon’s 2822.00 bias-down target renewed the bias-down signal, next targeting “unfinished business below” at 2813.75. It was tested down to 2808.75.
Now a bounce is testing 2817.00. But the trend hasn’t reversed up. Exiting the bias environment back above 2818.00 would help to signal a short-squeeze underway, with potential to 2829.50. Otherwise, back under 2811.00 would at least probe fresh lows, if not resume the decline next targeting 2801.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s two reports are high-profile, but not reliably influential to price action. That said, the Housing sector data will the first look in several days at what was hinting at a slowdown.
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2837.00 | 2837.25 |
| …would target | 2843.75 | 2844.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2827.50 | 2828.00 |
| …would target | 2821.50 | 2822.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Upside ends prematurely.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP IS ONE HOUR EARLY TODAY.
Trending up relentlessly overnight had tested yesterday’s 2846.50 high. There was no assurance that reinforcements would carry the trend higher post-open, but I would be reluctant to short before neutralizing the unfinished business above at 2848.75.
After the GDP reaction’s dip to 2839.00, no new sponsorship made its retest likely. Holding its retest would have potential back up to 2848.75.
Neither path higher formed. The dip to 2839.00 developed as was expected, but only to form a Descending Triangle that broke lower. Testing the 2836.50 bias-down signal at 10:15 and 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. The 2829.50 bias-down target is still an attraction, but doesn’t require being tested or held. Now it’s being attacked to within 2 points.
Recovering 2837.25 through a relevant window like the bias environment exit would start to signal this morning’s drop had ended. The vacuum back up to yesterday’s and overnight highs wouldn’t need any new sponsorship to rally — diminished selling would be enough.