S&P
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2805.25 | 2805.75 |
| …would target | 2812.00 | 2812.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2797.75 | 2798.50 |
| …would target | 2790.50 | 2791.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bearish WedEX isn’t dead.
Choppy open stuck in negative territory.
I had suggested this morning’s worst-case scenario would be to honor both the bullish Isolation setup and the bearish WedEX influence by only ranging narrowly through the morning. Nope. It’s the bearish WedEX influence that is all but destroying the bullish Isolation setup, which being stuck in negative territory.
The bearish WedEX has absorbed a pre-open bounce to 2802.50 which had tried to trigger the Ascending Triangle that had formed. Also absorbed is the post-open bounce to 2803.50. Both were reversed to test this morning’s 2798.00 bias-down signal.
The first dip to the bias-down signal was in time to trigger it above 2803.50, but it held. The second test was in time to invalidate it, but it held again. And the second test came AFTER having triggered no-bias, which puts into play an offsetting test of its 2806.50 bias-up signal. Now a reaction up is testing 2801.00.
So, ranging narrowly this morning is still not off the table. Ranging narrowly, or choppily, but only briefly in either direction. Whether or not bearish WedEX is more influential Friday’s afternoon, its influence still delays a recovery window. And it keeps open the door to fresh lows.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Struggling just to open flat.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Initially firming into Thursday night’s Globex session was blind-sided by the first overnight drop, a 17-point plunge to 2793.50. Its recovery back into Thursday’s range up to 2806.00 was hit by a 13-point plunge to 2793.00. Its recovery into and out of Friday’s open retraced the original plunge’s 2810.50 origin. More so, its recovery maintained an open back into Thursday’s range to form an Isolation setup. The morning’s rally created room for the afternoon’s bearish WedEX to influence price back down through Friday’s close and touch Thursday morning’s 2800.25 low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-up to touch 2806.00 and soon began reversing down. And down. Thursday night’s lows were pierced down to 2792.50. A chunk of the drop was a single 7-point slide, but no more plunging. And that was before midnight. Flat-to-higher ranging since then has twice tested Thursday/Friday’s “higher prior lows” at 2800.25.
If, then…
So much for Sunday night strength. Honoring the Isolation setup is difficult if this morning were to probe under Thursday’s 2800.00-2802.00 lows. And that’s going to be difficult to avoid if this morning were to honor the bearish WedEX influence, starting at Thursday’s 2800.00-2802.00 lows. Anything can happen before the open, but not much is expected. Overnight price action off of the lows may be forming an Ascending Triangle, whose break would target 2805.00 and 2813.00, which would be plenty of room for the morning’s bearish WedEX influence to develop — given enough time for the Triangle pattern’s overnight influence to develop pre-open, or into the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And given that the Triangle actually breaks higher. The pattern’s uptrending support is being tested now, and back under its 2795.00 connector would start to signal the Triangle is breaking lower, not higher, targeting 2791.25 and potentially 2781.00 down to 2775.00. Remember, both the Isolation and WedEX setup could be simultaneously influential if Monday morning were only to range narrowly sideways above 2800.00-2802.00. That’s no fun.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2803.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2798.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2795.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2806.00 | 2806.50 |
| …would target | 2813.50 | 2814.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2797.25 | 2798.00 |
| …would target | 2789.50 | 2790.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Overnight drops on macro economic news had every right to extend down Friday morning. Never retesting their lows intraday, holding its ground, probing their interim high… Apparently, the bearish downside catalyst doesn’t have much strong-handed sponsorship.
Those news items had every right to have caused a durable drop. Not extending, being absorbed, retracing entirely… all suggest the market is not inclined to decline. In fact, the Isolation setup formed by maintaining a recovery back above Thursday’s 2800.00-2800.00 lows through the open. The morning’s rally created room for the afternoon’s bearish WedEX to expend selling pressure without invalidating the Isolation setup. Which it barely did.
Apart from the bearish WedEX, Friday afternoon’s decline was probably attributable to headlines of Trump’s new sex (settlement) tapes. That news item has no right to cause a durable drop. Yet, its origin hasn’t been retraced. Not, yet. That can be neutralized by Sunday night strength.
Sunday night strength could greet Monday’s open gapping up — sharply — and not interfere with the WedEX’s bearish post-open influence. WedEX’s influence is only intraday. And having been influential Friday afternoon, Monday morning’s influence is often more pronounced. Then the afternoon would be free to continue fulfilling the Isolation setup and return to Wednesday’s highs.
Both the Isolation and WedEX setup could be simultaneously influential if Monday morning were only to range narrowly sideways. Invalidating either would require the morning to trend beyond Friday’s range.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THE SATURDAY REVIEW LINK WILL BE EMAILED IN THE MORNING