S&P
Mid-day Update… More targets met.
Still on the open’s buy signal.
Opening at 2791.00 ultimately held a test of this morning’s 2894.75 buy signal through 10:15. That put into play an offsetting test of
this morning’s 2803.50 bias-up signal. The objective was probed up to 2806.75.
A dip touched 2803.50 and resumed the rally into the noon hour. And out of it. This afternoon’s 2809.00 bias-up signal has triggered, putting into play its 2816.75 bias-up target. Already, 2814.00 has been touched.
A lot of calculable buying pressure is being satisfied by fulfilling objectives and targets. Bigger picture structural objectives are being neutralized at 2809.00 and 2813.00 prior highs. No sell signal has triggered, but direction can reverse quickly when sponsorship starts waning.
Back under 2809.00-2810.00 would start to warn of a different sentiment forming. But the trend otherwise remains intact and up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 18, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Day-two of Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony follows Tuesday’s very bullish reaction to day-one. So, another very bullish reaction? Somewhat bullish reaction? Actually, day-two’s reaction is often discounted somewhat Tuesday. Any legitimately surprised reaction will more likely come from Powell walking-back anything that he might be concerned had a greater impact than desired.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2807.50 | 2809.00 |
| …would target | 2815.25 | 2816.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2799.75 | 2801.50 |
| …would target | 2793.75 | 2795.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Getting worked up.
Post-open rally returns to positive territory.
A fresh low before the open came within 2 ticks of this morning’s 2789.25 bias-down target. Rallying into the open and through the opening 15 minutes of volatility was testing the 2794.75 bias-down signal. That had extended to 2798.00 when “no-bias” triggered.
Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2803.50 bias-up signal is in-play. Already probing higher since 10:15 makes the upside objective highly likely to be met sooner rather than later.
Nevertheless, back under the 2795.00 aera would start to signal the bounce had failed. Natural resistance at yesterday’s 2800.50 cash session close is now being touched, after trending up relentlessly for an hour. Any relief rally from Fed Chair Powell’s opening remarks is probably waning.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Technical glitch.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s drop to 2795.00 was signaled by the Globex setup — reversing an overnight probe of fresh highs up to 2709.00 to open back under the 2803.75 earlier overnight low. The morning remained under bearish pressure. The bias-down signal narrowly avoided being touched or triggering, so no other objective above or below was put into play. And later tests of the bias-down signal throughout the morning were absorbed. Positive territory held as resistance to a noon hour bounce, but the bounce’s failure only attacked the morning’s low. One more bounce stopped short of signaling a hold-long, and the cash session ended at 2800.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Blipping up to 2801.25 after the cash session close was reversed sharply down to 2795.00 as news leaked of AMZN web site problems and NFLX reported earnings difficulties. Globex initially recovered to retest 2801.25, suggesting that participants view the AMZN/NFLX problems as localized to the companies. Reversing back down into and out of Europe’s opens to a fresh low at 2790.50 may be suggesting that ripple effects are coming anyway (I expand on this in the Market Tour recording). Bouncing to 2797.75 has reacted down almost entirely back to the low.
If, then…
Having probed overnight under yesterday’s low, opening back above yesterday’s low and holding it as support could Isolate overnight sellers. The potentially bullish setup may be the only alternative to extending yesterday’s intraday weakness today with potential down to 2781.25. So, triggering bias-down, or not, may tell us everything about the balance of today’s session.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2792.50 would be likely to trigger the 2794.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2797.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.