S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce from 1.1702 support had held 1.1740 resistance, only testing the 1.1725 buy signal at the close, so momentum did not reverse up. The overnight drop to 1.1665 support was retraced enough for Friday’s open to gap down to the 1.1702 support narrowly avoided Friday. The retracement extended to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 1.1725 buy signal, which would still be valid if triggered.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding Thursday’s bounce at 1248.50 had kept alive the decline’s momentum, next targeting 1237.50. Which was met at the 1236.20 overnight low just before Friday’s gap down. Bounces must now hold tests of 1243.50 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.02 buy signal was only touched at the peak of Thursday’s bounce, keeping alive the decline’s momentum for at least a deeper test of the prior week’s 15.80 low. Friday’s gap down did test it by a nickel, and leaves no “unfinished business below,” but it is premature to qualify as a low.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 145-02 / 145-25 range continued its influence Friday as Thursday’s dip back down to its lower-end was reversed to attack its upper-end. The range is effectively a “standing-stop,” and is losing its predictive value for identifying the first trending attempt beyond its range.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming slightly Friday morning keeps alive downside momentum which has already confirmed Wednesday’s breakout that requires at least an eventual third lower close.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The bounce to 2.82 resistance resolved down Friday to fresh lows attacking 2.75, and the lower-end of April’s range had launched the interim highs above 3.02. Bounces holding 2.80 would keep alive 2.71 and 2.67 targets below.
Mid-day Update… Weekend slowdown?
Momentum disappearing at session highs.
The post-open dip to this morning’s 2793.50 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15. That put into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2804.00 bias-up signal. The target was met within the hour, nice.
RSIs diverging into the morning bias environment exit had suggested momentum was rolling over. Taht would have been nice, too. Then came the news.
The Russia indictments headline triggered a knee-jerk reaction that attacked 2800.00. The artificial selling pressure crowded out the organic deterioration. The effect isn’t compounded, but replaced.
Anyway, now we all know that the administration isn’t affected by the indictments. So… relief rally! Right? Actually, the post-open 2806.25 high has only been touched. And only momentarily as its reaction is testing 2802.00 — the afternoon’s 2805.50 bias-up signal could have triggered but did not.
The shallow reactions suggest that Friday afternoon’s usual lethargic influence has begun. This doesn’t prevent trending any more, or retracing, but the predictability and reliability is inhibited.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar has a somewhat unusual start to the week with two high-profile reports released before the open. Only one is reliable for influencing price action.
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2803.50 | 2805.25 |
| …would target | 2809.75 | 2811.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2793.50 | 2795.50 |
| …would target | 2786.00 | 2788.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Slowing down into the weekend.
Open easily absorbs overnight reversal.
Probing overnight above yesterday’s high and then exiting the open under the earlier overnight low would have been very bearish. 
Probing overnight above yesterday’s high and then holding a test of the earlier overnight low would have been as bullish as the other setup would have been bearish.
This morning did neither. And not for lack of proximity. Just for lack of trying.
The 2797.00 earlier overnight low had been probed down to 2795.50 several hours before the open. Its reaction still hovered just above 2797.00 right into the open. But the reaction’s 2801.50 high was retested, and the 2797.00 earlier overnight low was ignored. Neither the setup nor its rejection developed.
That wasn’t in itself bullish, but missing a bearish opportunity is relatively bullish. This didn’t prevent reversing back down anyway, but the burden of proof was on sellers. And they barely touched the 2793.50 bias-down signal. Then failed to trigger it.
Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2804.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Any higher would open the door to 2709.00 and 2713.00. Back under 2797.00 again would not necessarily reverse momentum down, but it would at least suggest another detour to extending the rally.