S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday back to Thursday’s 1.7735 open surged to fresh recovery highs at 1.1830. The 1.1850 objective is also in view so long as Monday doesn’t retrace all of Friday’s gain.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap down still held well above Thursda’s lows, but didn’t recover. It’s not the optimal pullback before launching the next upleg, but almost any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher anyway.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely attacking Thursday’s high Friday morning reacted back down to attack Wednesday’s lows, which is still shallower than optimal before launching a credible rally leg. While a fresh high early Monday could extend, it probably wouldn’t be durable.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking up in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report was retraced back within Thursday’s range, almost entirely to fill the gap back down to 145-16. Friday’s gap up was within Thursday’s range, too, so there is not inhibition to prevent reacting down through the week-long range’s lower end to 144-08.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting the 72.80 pullback limit Friday morning was recovered to hold its test, still being likely to fill Tuesday’s 74.80 opening gap and possibly retest the 75.30 target.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s session didn’t rally, and only slightly probed under Thursday’s low. Twice. The recent break and the position of weakness greeting the EIA report weren’t rejected, making the pattern likely to resolve down if not already recovering Sunday night.
Mid-day Update… There. And, back?
Upside fulfilled. Can it be maintained? Can it extend?.
This morning’s 2749.00 bias-up target was met. And it was gradually exceeded. Then it was left behind in the dust when the bias environment began lapsing at 2758.00. The noon hour was entered at 2763.50. Potential to the low-2760s is fulfilled.
Attempts to extend higher have touched 2765.00. But this afternoon’s 2764.50 bias-up signal did not trigger. Back under 2760.00 could retrace to 2747.00 simply as noise.
Rallying out of the bias environment exit would be credible for resuming the rally, especially with this being a Friday. No matter how overly-extended today’s rally might seem, be careful underestimating the ability to drift higher through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The new week begins with no high-profile econ reports. Not listed is a scheduled speech by a Fed Speaker on Sunday night.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2763.25 | 2764.50 |
| …would target | 2770.75 | 2772.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2754.50 | 2756.00 |
| …would target | 2749.00 | 2750.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Earned it.
Pre-payrolls pessimism’s pop-up proceeds patiently, persistently.
The bullish scenario I described during the Market Tour was that testing the earlier 2732.75 overnight low reflected pessimism. A
nd pessimism into a known-event like the Employment Situation report is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
The test had touched 2731.25 before greeting the news at 2733.00, which spiked up to 2744.50. Its pre-open retracement blipped-down briefly post-open to 2734.50, then started recovering. The 2740.75 bias-up signal was triggered, the reaction’s 2744.50 high was recovered, and now the 2747.50 high has been touched.
The 2749.00 bias-up target is in-play. Extending any higher would target the low 2750‘s and potentially also probe above 2760.00. One impediment to extending higher is the open’s delay recovering decisively, which would have been preferable in this scenario. So, sellers aren’t marginalized, but the burden of proof is still on them.