S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 9, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs openings report can contradict an influential Employment report — which Friday’s payrolls was not — or contradict its data, which is a possibility.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2892.00 | 2895.50 |
| …would target | 2898.50 | 2902.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2884.00 | 2887.50 |
| …would target | 2877.50 | 2881.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Nevertheless.
Bisa-down target’s test bounces big.
We knew that quickly taking a sell signal was compelling because the bearish Globex-flip setup was triggering.
That is, opening under Sunday night’s initial 2896.00 low, and Friday’s 2895.25 last relative low, could point down all morning.
Immediately breaking under the 2890.00 signal soon extended down to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2884.00 bias-down target.
Then the market bounced. And kept bouncing. It’s still bouncing.
The 2890.75 bias-down signal triggered, and narrowly missed invoking the brace period. Regardless, it was still being tested at 10:30 when recovering higher would have invalidated it. This is a bias-down environment, and probing above its bias-down signal requires being retraced or already rejected when the bias window lapses.
Fulfilling the bias-down target to within at least 3 ticks relieves it from becoming “unfinished business” if not actually touched. Meanwhile, the Globex-flip setup doesn’t expect this morning to recover, and a lot of buying pressure has been expended when it can’t gain traction for the effort. Back under 2890.75 would start to signal another downleg underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stumbling out of the weekend.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Already firming into Thursday’s close and overnight, Friday’s Employment Situation report was approached optimistically. Its knee-jerk reaction was a 7-1/2 point spike up to 2893.50 that was retraced entirely through the open. The open recovered to a fresh high at 2896.50. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, firming to 2898.00 through the close. The next higher objective at 2902.00 was put in-play officially, and another new trend high close became a requirement for having closed at a trend high on Friday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Having no new guidance from the weekend, overnight action is recalling that Friday lacked upside momentum. But not before probing higher with enough complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme.” Initially firming from its 2896.00 open, Sunday night soon blipped-up to 2899.50. And then back down 10 points to 2889.50 by midnight. So, that’s a probe above the prior session’s high, reversed back under the 2896.00 earlier Globex low. And through it down to 2889.00. Firming again into Europe’s opens has only now tried extending to test 2894.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Initial overnight strength stopped short of its next higher objective at 2902.00. That’s a calculable objective, but just probing above the prior session’s high can fulfill structural upside pressures. And reversing back under the earlier Globex low could form a bearish “Globex-flip.” The setup requires maintaining the reversal through the open, along with any test of support. Its reward would trend down for at least the morning (also through tomorrow morning if not reversed this afternoon). All of which could develop while leaving two structural setups outstanding. There was already Friday’s new trend high close requiring at least another eventually. Now there’s also the new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest. Either could rescue a pullback at some point. The question is whether the rescue prevents or ends a post-open pullback. The answer would come already by preventing, or not, a gap down under the earlier Globex low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2888.75 would be likely to trigger the 2890.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2893.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2898.25 | 2902.00 |
| …would target | 2907.25 | 2911.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2887.00 | 2890.75 |
| …would target | 2880.25 | 2884.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.