S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2793.75 | 2798.00 |
| …would target | 2799.75 | 2804.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2785.00 | 2789.25 |
| …would target | 2778.25 | 2782.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Slow-going.
No apparent appetite for risk.
The open’s gap up was under prior highs. So, a reversal down won’t be required to retest it. Actually, a reversal down never really materialized. But it took a long time before trending developed.
Trending did develop. Or, at least an attempt. Fluctuating around the 2792.50 bias-up signal finally triggered it. that has extended to a fresh post-open high at 2795.00. But there seems to be no rush in extending.
Nevertheless, this is a bias-up environment. Fresh post-10:15 highs are already printing, which reinforces the signal. Nevertheless, back under 2791.50 would start to suggest a sooner downdraft.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another overnight tease.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s late drop to 2784.00 had defined the overnight range, which was tested repeatedly to as low as 2782.25. Tuesday’s open was greeted back at the overnight range’s 2791.00 upper-end, which eventually extended up to 2794.00 at noon. Dropping into the final hour attacked the 2782.25 overnight low, where one more bounce took price back up to 2791.00. No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding, while the relevant 2793.00 level held a second consecutive test.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s final hour bounce extended into the Globex open, and soon probed fresh highs up to 2796.00. The probe above the prior session’s highs — like Sunday night’s probe of fresh highs — was retraced back under prior intraday highs to 2789.25. Retraced, but not necessarily rejected. Now yesterday’s 2794.00 high has been recovered.
If, then…
The pattern remains alive as another probe above prior highs is reversed. Last night was the second overnight reversal, and yesterday’s intraday reversal originated from a couple of ticks short of a fresh high. So, today may be the last opportunity for the distributive pressures to prove whether its sponsorship has been strong-handed. The strong hands in this pattern may have been patient sellers letting buyers expend their energy. The pattern often ends in a threatening downdraft that extends or is miraculously saved, accelerating in either direction. This series of higher highs hasn’t yet included sucha make-or-break crossroads, but the combination of failed probes while creeping closer to the 2800.00 area makes a reckoning likelier.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2790.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2792.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2795.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2788.75 | 2792.50 |
| …would target | 2794.25 | 2798.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2781.00 | 2784.75 |
| …would target | 2773.75 | 2777.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s open was greeted by already bouncing off of the 2782.25 overnight low. That didn’t leave much for a post-open rally, gapping up to the 2791.00 origin 
of Monday’s late drop. The retracement was likely because of the drop’s late timing. The morning only consolidated back down to unchanged at 2786.00.
A brief surge to 2794.00 peaked at noon, within 1 tick of Monday’s 2794.25 high. That wasn’t too pessimistic to prevent reversing down. The brief surge was doomed anyway, having left “unfinished business below” outstanding from the morning at 2782.00 bias objective. The reversal extended into the final hour, attacking 2782.00 to within 3 ticks and neutralizing it.
Turnabout is fair-play At least, it was for the late low, which had stopped optimistically short of touching the overnight low. Like noon’s peak, which was 1 tick short of touching Monday’s high before reversing down, the late low launched a 9-point rally back to the 2791.00 open. The session ended back in positive territory above Monday’s 2786.00 close. No new unfinished business was left outstanding.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is resuming its collapse. Tuesday’s extension qualifies as part of the prevailing downleg, since the interim consolidation was kept shallow. A low, let alone a recovery , is premature.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.