S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The Trump-Un summit in Singapore will likely garner most mainstream media coverage. The Brexit bill returning to the House of Commons might generate some headlines, too. The econ calendar isn’t entirely sparse, with the pre-open CPI being both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2789.75 | 2793.00 |
| …would target | 2796.75 | 2800.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2781.50 | 2785.00 |
| …would target | 2774.00 | 2777.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Non-decisive hovering.
Bias-up signal attracts, then holds.
Reacting down from the 2786.50 overnight high had itself attacked 2779.00. And that was recovered to greet the open at 2784.00. That ended the potential for rejecting last night’s probe above prior sessions’ highs. In fact, the pre-open recovery extended post-open to fresh highs at 2788.25.
Which offered another opportunity to reject a probe above prior sessions’ highs. A pullback was recovered back above 2788.00, and then another pullback recovered. The 2786.50 bias-up signal was still being tested at both 10:15 AND at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. The bias-up target is not in-play, and the early probe above prior highs can be rejected.
Of course, having avoided a clear rejection of the 2786.50 bias-up signal means an off-seting test of the bias-down signal is also not in-play. The early probe above prior highs can be rejected, and back under 2784.00 would signal a reversal underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Already in a make or break.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s intraday sell-off down to 2763.75 had not gained traction for its effort. That didn’t prevent probing lower overnight down to 2755.75. But the lack of intraday traction may have prevented the overnight sell-off from extending. Or from even being maintained. The fresh lows were already recovered before Friday’s open to form a bullish Isolation setup. The morning’s choppy start was entirely appropriate for the setup, as was the afternoon’s relentless trending. The setup’s likely objective to retest Thursday’s 2783.25 high was touched at the close. Both bias setups were also fulfilled, and no “unfinished business” was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down to immediately test relevant support from Friday at 2775.00. That was the extent of selling pressure, other than a quick retest of the open’s 2774.00 low. But Friday’s 2782.50 close was soon attacked to within 1 point. A 4-point pullback was already recovering into Europe’s opens, and extended to touch what is this morning’s 2786.50 bias-up signal. Now Friday’s 2782.50 close is being tested as support.
If, then…
Perhaps the most relevant influence to monitor at the moment is last week’s pattern of rejecting early probes above prior highs. There were four, and there were different versions among them. Some of the reversals developed earlier than others, but last night’s would be the earliest if it qualifies through the open. That can cut either way, so not rejecting the fresh high would be bullish for extending higher this morning. Not rejecting the fresh high needs some work, since the fresh highs is currently struggling to hold above Friday’s high. It’s premature at this moment to call it either way — check the Market Tour recording for tactical discussion — but it’s not too late for reversing down to threaten the earlier 2774.00 Globex low. Exiting the open below it, like Friday’s fulfilled Isolation setup, would signal weakness through this morning or through tomorrow morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2784.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2786.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2778.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2777.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2774.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2783.25 | 2786.50 |
| …would target | 2789.75 | 2793.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2774.00 | 2777.50 |
| …would target | 2767.50 | 2771.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.