S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2721.50 | 2720.75 |
| …would target | 2728.00 | 2727.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2712.50 | 2712.00 |
| …would target | 2706.00 | 2705.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Levitation act.
Holding at resistance, not rejecting it.
Yesterday’s post-open highs held tests of the 2708.00 area as resistance. It was the morning’s calculable bias-down target. 
Last night’s rally held the 2708.00 area as resistance, too. And its reaction down to 2698.75 was recovered to test the 2708.00 area.
Repeatedly. Eventually, a higher high became at least obligatory. The objective already measured out to 2711.00. And now that is being fulfilled by an 8-point surge up to 2715.00.
Recall that the rally from yesterday’s lows has room up to 2715.00 while still being considered a corrective bounce. The 3-minute RSI has finally touched overbought territory but not very compellingly. Back under 2711.00 would start to signal the corrective bounce is done so momentum can start reversing down.
Extending higher anyway would still leave “unfinished business below” at the gap down to yesterday’s 2688.50-2692.00 close. But another run at last week’s highs above 2733.00 would be possible, first.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to square two.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Last week had ended with a bearish opening setup whose influence tends to persist for several days, including Tuesday. Italy’s political instability also greeted the end of a 3-day holiday weekend, triggering an overnight slide that probed the lowest levels in over 2 weeks sown to 2690.00. Bouncing through the open briefly attacked 2710.00 and held “higher prior lows” before plunging to attack 2676.00. Its late-afternoon retest held, and recovered back to the afternoon’s 2691.50 high — more than 15 points off the lows but still down nearly 30 points from Friday’s close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Several swings between 2693.50 and 2685.50 contained price action before rallying into Europe’s opens. And out. No defensive posturing there, and so far no apparent need for it as the rally has extended relentlessly since then. Yesterday’s opening range is being probed up to 2707.75.
If, then…
Is the near-term bearish influence of Friday’s open done? Regardless, it is about to leave “unfinished business below” at the gap back down to yesterday’s 2688.50-2692.00 close. This is an attraction below, and not selling pressure. A trigger is still needed to resume the decline. Until then, more “higher prior lows” up to 2715.00 from the two-week range above can be tested and still contain the corrective bounce from yesterday’s lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2701.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2700.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2698.00 would be likely only to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2694.75 | 2693.50 |
| …would target | 2701.25 | 2700.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2686.75 | 2685.75 |
| …would target | 2680.25 | 2679.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Is that a new downtrend you’ve got there, or are you just happy to get sellers out of the way?
The 3-day holiday weekend ended more abruptly than the calendar had suggested. May 14-22’s Double Top already had retraced its 2700.00 interim low too deeply to rely on the rally resuming. Corrective bounces testing and retesting the 2730.00 area never regained momentum. And Friday’s inside day didn’t change matters. So, Tuesday’s gap down to 2700.00 had only two choices: Extend down, or else bounce before extending down.
It was a little of each, as the open’s 2697.00 low was recovered to test “higher prior lows” up to 2709.50 before retracing entirely. The 2690.00 overnight low was soon retested by a plunge into the noon hour that got to 2676.50. Bouncing to 2691.50 was retraced back to the low, and then recovered back up to 2691.50 into the close.
A lot of selling pressure was satisfied below. Renewing the morning’s bias-down signal under 2708.00 had put into play 2679.00-2683.50. It didn’t require an intraday retest. So, is its quick test the sign of a correction wanting to resolve up soon? A higher close Tuesday might have suggested as much, but the decline’s momentum remains intact.
Gapping up — or down — by enough margin Wednesday could reverse or extend the decline, respectively. Any strength shallower than 2715.00 is likely to resolve down. Meanwhile, since Tuesday’s sellers gained no traction for their efforts, the 2675.00-2676.00 lows need to break Wednesday before suggesting buyers are marginalized.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.