S&P
Mid-day Update… Early to rise, early to bed.
Early upside momentum fails.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2721.50 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2730.75 bias-up signal. There was really only one attempt, and got to only 2727.00. The objective becomes “unfinished business above.”
Now the Friday afternoon crowd is in charge.
The morning’s consolidating was supported by its 2721.50 bias-down signal until the bias environment had fully lapsed at noon. And then the landscape changed. A drop to the afternoon’s 2718.00 bias-down signal held through the 1:20 bias timing window, invoking the grace period. The 1:30 bar was still overlapping it to trigger noN-bias. The same bar was also probing under the morning’s 2717.50 lows.
noN-bias doesn’t require testing the 2712.00 bias-down target, but it can. I’m treating it that way unless the bias environment is exited back above its 2718.00 bias-down signal. An attempt to trend down already failed this morning, which often defines a defensible low, so any recovery could be substantial.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 28, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The U.S. celebrates Memorial Day with a 3-day holiday weekend. Markets are closed, but Globex trades through the noon hour.
Globex open
Sun 6:00 PM ET
Globex close
1:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2726.50 | 2725.25 |
| …would target | 2732.00 | 2730.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2719.00 | 2718.00 |
| …would target | 2713.00 | 2712.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Another bite later?
Pre-open slide crowds out post-open sellers.
Having probed yesterday’s highs overnight, opening under the earlier overnight low often signals the trend reversing down. 
Last night’s probe above 2730.50 reacted down under what had been the 2726.75 Globex low.
Then it extended much deeper to 2716.25. And that was down from the 2737.75 overnight high. That’s a lot of selling pressure to expend, inhibiting post-open reinforcements. And its European sponsorship would begin focusing on the impending weekend.
An opening surge did reverse down sharply from its 2722.50-2723.25 resistance as expected. Stopping optimistically short of touching pre-open lows was nevertheless exploited by a bounce that has avoided triggering the 2721.50 bias-down signal. Now an offsetting test of the 2730.75 bias-up signal is in-play.
Now a dip is testing the 2721.50 bias-down signal as support. Back above 2723.00 (being tested now) would start to signal the recovery has resumed. Fulfilling the upside objective early enough would allow another downdraft into the weekend. Back under 2720.00 could leave “unfinished business above” in favor of resuming the pre-open decline.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Cuts both ways.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Probing above Wednesday’s 2733.00 high Thursday morning was all but obligatory. Which almost happened, if not for the knee-jerk reaction to the North Korea news. The morning plunged from 2730.50 down to 2705.75. But it was a non-market headline, making its retracement likely. Which happened, to within 3 ticks. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at Thursday afternoon’s 2732.00 bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging eked back up to Thursday’s 2730.50 opening high. And then higher, briefly consolidating at the 2732.00 unfinished business, and then spiking up to what is Friday morning’s 2737.50 bias-up target. Sliding down to 2728.50 into and out of Europe’s opens (defensive posturing) wasn’t recovered immediately. And it then it wasn’t recovered entirely, bouncing only to 2735.00 before reversing down under 2725.00.
If, then…
The attraction of yesterday’s “unfinished business above” at 2732.00 would have helped to resume the rally Friday morning. But its test is already fulfilled overnight, as is the likely probe of fresh highs. They’re not UNlikely to be tested intraday, but that’s not required. And their retests won’t be likely at all if the open is already breaking back under the earlier 2727.00 overnight low, which is now being probed. Remember that the bullish influence of a 3-day holiday weekend has been undermined twice, and a third time shouldn’t be surprising. Recovering from negative territory through or before the open to probe fresh highs would still be vulnerable to reversing down, but much less so.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2727.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2730.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2733.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.