S&P
Post-open Review… Position of strength.
Quick opening surge creates post-open room to retrace.
The overnight range’s late surge had attacked 2676.00. It was reversed down as quickly as it had surged. 
Reacting down into and out of the open pierced the 2668.00 bias-up signal as support. It was reversed as quickly as the overnight reversal.
And the overnight reversal was recovered. Surging through the opening 15 minutes of volatility pierced 2678.00. The next 15 minutes added another point.
Exceeding the 2674.00 bias-up target through 10:15 has renewed the bias-up signal. This essentially puts into play a test of 2684.25. More important, it creates a position of strength for the chart to absorb counter-trend sponsorship.
Speaking of which…
The open’s entire rally has been retraced back down to 2668.75. It behaved as if there was a headline catalyst, but I haven’t seen it. Regardless, the position of strength makes the rally likely to resume. Back above 2674.75 (being tested now) would all but confirm.
Otherwise, there is a path down. Probing fresh lows through the bias environment exit would start to suggest that 2674.00 has held, and that its room for noise is not an attraction.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… An optimistic start.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
A weak reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report was likely to be false. So, gradually dipping under the overnight range’s 2623.50 lows down to 2612.25 held its test of the 2620.00 bias-down signal before rallying back up through the open. And through the bias timing window, and into the noon hour. The morning’s rally was no-bias trending that would have required being retraced, except its sponsorship exited the bias environment above its bias-up target. The rally extend through the noon hour to trigger bias-up, exceeding the afternoon’s bias-up target to exit the bias environment at 2669.25. Its reaction down to 2657.00 bounced 6 points into the close, overlapping Wednesday’s 2658.50 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up slightly to attack Friday’s high, and soon surged to probe it up to attack 2673.00. Flat to higher ranging since then has held this morning’s 2668.00 bias-up signal tests as support. Attacks on this morning’s 2674.00 bias-up target are now being exceeded by a surge attacking 2676.00.
If, then…
Only overlapping Wednesday’s 2658.50 high at Friday’s close meant that extending to 2674.00 and 2684.25 was not necessarily in-play. Gapping up today could have qualified as a signal by proxy. Thta was until 2674.00 was neutralized to within 1 tick overnight. Now, the extension can be signaled by recovering 2674.00 through the open. A pullback through the open could still be absorbed, and ranging through the morning could resolve up. But touching 2674.00 must exit that window above it, or else risk attracting strong-handed sellers. Dipping back into negative territory wouldn’t be easily tolerated, nor would any price action that suggests Wednesday’s 2658.50 high is holding as resistance.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2664.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2668.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2670.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2677.00 would suggest the 2674.00 bias-up target will be exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2684.25.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2670.50 | 2668.00 |
| …would target | 2676.50 | 2674.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2657.75 | 2655.50 |
| …would target | 2650.25 | 2648.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
This morning’s 2620.00 bias-down signal was tested down to 2612.25, and recovered in time to avoid triggering. That put into play an offsetting test of its 2638.25 bias-up signal. And it was tested before the first hour ended, when exceeding it would have renewed the bias-up. But it was still being overlapped.
The rally extended anyway.
If tested during the no-bias environment, the untriggered 2638.25 bias-up signal would be required to define the window’s upper-end, or else trending above it is required to be retraced. Both constraints could be invalidated if the rally’s sponsorship were to prove itself worthy — by exiting the bias environment above its 2646.00 bias-up target.
It was.
And having rejected the no-bias and its required retracement, the rally has only extended. The open’s shallow muted reaction to the Employment Situation report leveraged Thursday afternoon’s pent-up pressure to extend sharply higher. The afternoon’s 2655.00 bias-up signal triggered and its 2662.00 bias-up target was ultimately probed up to 2669.50.
The session ended by retracing the bias environment down to 2657.00, but no prior low was attacked. The session closed by overlapping Wednesday’s 2658.50 high, and not by closing above it, so extending to 2674.00 and 2684.25 is not necessarily in-play..
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
WE’LL APPLY THIS AND MORE TO THE BIGGER PICTURE AT THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW. ITS LINK WILL BE EMAILED IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The opportunity to start forming a bottom was abandoned Friday by the Employment Situation reaction. Fresh lows at 1.1945 keep the trend intact, and all but require at least an intraday low before a reversal would be credible.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging Friday all but ignored the morning’s Employment Situation report, while maintaining the 1316.00 bounce limit to keep alive the downside momentum.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower ranging Friday all but ignored the morning’s Employment Situation report, while maintaining the 16.45 bounce limit to keep alive the downside momentum.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction probed Thursday’s high up to 144-08. Reversing backdown into Thursday’s range also probed under it to test the 143-07 sell signal. Reversal signals aren’t very credible on the same day as the trend extreme, so delaying a break under 1433-07 would be more bearish.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already firming further overnight was confirming the pattern’s backing-and-filling down to the 66.80 area had likely ended the consolidation. Extending intraday to fresh highs attacking 70.00 essentially confirms.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fluctuating Friday between 2.70-2.72 doesn’t invalidate the attempt to resume the decline, so almost any initial weakness Monday is likely to extend down.