S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap down wouldn’t allow reversing back up soon, certainly not by Tuesday’s weak bounce. And that reacted down overnight to gap down Wednesday under Monday’s 1.2245 low. A bounce now has room up to the gap at Tuesday’s 1.2285 close before even threatening to reverse the trend up.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s shallow obligatory bounce was retraced entirely overnight to gap down Wednesday morning. Ranging sideways between 1320.00-1324.00 hovered exclusively under prior lows that each had threatened to extend down previously. Bounce meanwhile have room up to 1330.50 without reversing the trend up.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down under Monday’s lows Wednesday also fluctuated around the 16.50 pullback limit whose break under 16.40 would be unlikely to recover before probing fresh lows.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Although nothing was bullish about Monday or Tuesday’s patterns, a corrective bounce was possible. But fresh lows overnight produced another gap down Wednesday that once again makes any recovery attempt unlikely to extend before the weekend. A bounce has room up to 142-25 while still being likely to extend down to 141-04.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Choppy sideways action Wednesday morning filled the gap back down to Monday’s 67.10 open. Being the lower-end of the past week’s range, Thursday is free either to probe under the range and trend down, or else bounce to probe the range’s upper-end and retest the rally’s 69.50 target.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s close above the 2.75 bounce limit extended higher to touch the range’s 2.79 upper-end. The pattern’s sell signal remains unchanged at 2.72 probed intraday. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, but a knee-jerk reaction down would still be credible.
Mid-day Update… Getting a little too big for itself.
Looming events may inhibit further trending.
Recovering all of the post-open 22-point plunge was impressive. Especially the segment that exceeded this morning’s 2624.25 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment. The minimum objective for retracing the open was 2634.75, and it was touched.
That also retested the filled gap at yesterday’s close, and neither test was required. But exiting the bias environment above them would have allowed retracing the segment above 2624.25 to come from a position of strength. Perhaps that’s why actually retracing 2624.25 probed it down to 2619.75.
All of which has been recovered. Another fresh post-open high is piercing 2636.00 — the upper-end of the objective for retracing the open. Also like this morning’s test of the objective’s lower-end, it’s being done by “no-bias trending,” above the 2631.75 bias-up signal but too late to trigger.
Retracing this afternoon’s bias-up signal is required. Eventually. Meanwhile, fresh highs might attack 2638.00. Being no-bias trending that requires being retraced is already difficult to extend. There’s also post-close earnings looming from Facebook. The no-bias environment could dip back down to its 2621.75 bias-down signal just as noise.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Like Tuesday, Thursday’s econ calendar is busy but has only one reliably influential report. That’s after the ECB policy statement and Draghi Q&A. And all of the high-profile reports are pre-open, but several report simultaneously, all but ensuring the market’s open is greeted with volatility.
FB earnings
Wednesday post-close
*ECB policy statement / Draghi Q&A
7:45 AM / 8:30 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2633.25 | 2631.75 |
| …would target | 2639.25 | 2637.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2623.25 | 2621.75 |
| …would target | 2616.00 | 2614.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Quick plunge steadily recovers.
Yesterday’s low hold a retest.
We discussed a bullish setup during the Tour. So long as yesterday’s 2616.00 lows either avoided or absorbed a test through the open, its reaction up would have filled the gap back up to yesterday’s 2633.00-2635.00 close. 
But that bounce had played out already to open at 2632.00-2634.00. The bullish setup was inverted.
Inverted, and rejected. The opening 15 minutes of volatility plunged 22 points to 2611.25. Yesterday’s lows were broken. But the break’s low printed at 9:45, and never printed lower. That’s an opportunity for a low, an alternative method to absorb a test. A very choppy recovery bounced 11 points to 2622.25 by 10:15.
Bias-down triggered, but wasn’t renewed. The bounce has extended another 12 points anyway to attack 2635.00. This is a bias-down rally, and requires being retraced at least to its 2624.25 bias-down signal. Often, the 2718.00 10:15 print will be retraced, too.
Retracing the bias-down rally would prevent recovering the filled gap. And that would keep alive the downtrend. Otherwise, entering the noon hour above 2633.00-2635.00 would suggest a bigger bounce underway.