S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” completed its recovery by gapping up Wednesday to test Monday’s 1.2450 high. Closing any higher would confirm the rally had resumed, targeting 1.2510-1.2535.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to gap up Wednesday at fresh recovery highs only ranged sideways intraday, which is still enough to maintain the minimum upside objectives at 1361.00-1364.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight after Tuesday had already filled the gap back up to 16.80 was improved overnight to gap up Wednesday and extend through 17.25, confirming the upside momentum remains intact, next targeting 17.37 and 17.65.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was too shallow to yet invalidate the corrective bounce targeting 146-10, which was attacked to within a quarter-point Tuesday. But extending down through the noon hour did test the 145-04 sell signal whose break would start to signal a new downleg is underway.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Coverage has rolled forward to Jun, trading at a 10-cent discount from May] Tuesday’s last-minute trigger of downtrending pivotal resistance was extended overnight to gap up Wednesday, filling the gap back up to Friday’s 67.20 close. Extending through 67.60 confirms the rally is now targeting 69.50.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday started by still testing the 2.75 bounce limit, which keeps alive the potential for fresh lows down to 2.52. A post-open bounce up to 2.79 was retraced back down to 2.75, maintaining the distributive pattern.
Mid-day Update… Is the lower-end enough?
Minimum objective met, and holding.
The lower-end of the 2715.00-2722.00 objective was teased at repeatedly overnight. Yesterday afternoon had sort of teased at it, too, but it was probed decisively before the open. Despite triggering no-bias and dipping deeply post-open, the morning recovered just to probe the objective again.
2715.00 is substantial resistance. But it’s not yet a substantial repellent. All of that upside attraction might seem bullish. But it should also be noted that this morning’s recovery could have invalidated the no-bias objective below, by exiting the bias environment above its 2718.25 bias-up target, which instead held. So, perhaps hovering at session highs is only ineffectual optimism ahead of the 2:00 Beige Book release.
Probing any higher isn’t required, but probing any higher is likely to test 2722.00-2724.00. Exiting the bias environment in decline would be likely to fulfill unfinished business below at the 2703.75 low’s oversold RSIs and this morning’s 2702.25 bias-down signal. Either resolution is probably the product of pre-expiration positioning, informing this afternoon’s WedEX.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar has high-profile and reliably influential items. And any obvious reaction to either pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Randal Quarles Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2718.25 | 2718.25 |
| …would target | 2723.75 | 2724.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2711.75 | 2712.00 |
| …would target | 2706.50 | 2706.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tough resistance.
Bias-up target’s test reverses down hard, momentarily.
The overnight rally had extended up to this morning’s 2718.25 bias-up target. Not intraday, but overnight. In an ongoing setup likely to trend up post-open. Reacting down was likely, but so was a recovery.
Reacting down, no problem. The open was greeted back at the 2711.50 bias-up signal. Recovering, problem. Bouncing out of the open peaked upon testing 2716.00, and reversed down to fresh lows at 2709.50.
There already was no bullish reason to revisit 2711.50 after testing 2716.00. Fresh lows tested 2704.00. This is a no-bias environment, putting into play a test of its 2702.25 bias-down signal for having held a test of the bias-up signal.
A bounce is now testing the 2711.50 bias-up signal. It’s too late to trigger, and it’s too late for its recovery to invalidate that it didn’t trigger. It should hold, or at least hold its test before resolving down to fulfill the test of 2702.25. Extending higher anyway would only be doomed to failure later.